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USDJPY near an Important Crossroad

USDJPY near an Important Crossroad

2011-02-11 04:00:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Senior Strategist

USDJPY at an Important Crossroads

The USDJPY is at an interesting point for a trader. 83.73 price is the line in the sand for a bearish outlook on the pair. So long as prices remain below this level, a multi-month triangle is likely play out to new lows. Therefore, a trader can place a stop just above at 83.85. This trade has a low percentage of success, but if it is successful, there would be several hundred pips of potential to the downside. This means a strong risk to reward ratio is present on the trade. The potential exists for new lows below 80.

USDJPY_at_an_Important_Crossroads_body_Picture_1.png, USDJPY near an Important Crossroad

(USDJPY Bearish Scenario)

If the 83.73 line in the sand is broken, then it is possible the USDJPY is in the midst of a powerful wave iii of 3. (Wave 3’s tend to be the strongest of the wave patterns.) This could carry the pair into the upper 80’s at a minimum.

USDJPY_at_an_Important_Crossroads_body_Picture_2.png, USDJPY near an Important Crossroad

USDJPY Bullish Scenario

With an elevated SSI reading of 3.25 on the pair, I would be biased to the short side.

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