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March 16th FOMC Meeting

March 16th FOMC Meeting

Thomas Long, Course Instructor

I also believe that it is the technicals that show us how we get between those two points. So I am of the opinion that is the economic calendar that offers the first hint of a potential trend change.  

The most important factor in the value of a currency is the interest rate environment of that country/zone. Higher interest rates usually lead to a higher currency value while lower interest rates usually lead to a lower currency value. The interest rates of each country/zone in the pair and their relationship to each other is also of great importance.

When I look at the EUR/USD daily chart, I see a strong downtrend.

eurusd 031610

This means that the USD is stronger than the EUR. While there are many factors involved, we know that the European Central Bank (ECB) does not seem interested in raising rates while the US Federal Reserve has already raised the Discount Rate once. That may be enough for now, but today we may find out more about what they think when the FOMC, which is the Federal Open Market Committee, the group that is responsible for that decision at the US Federal Reserve, gives us their thoughts at 215PM Eastern.

If the FOMC gives the impression that they may raise rates at some time, the downtrend should remain intact. Even if they announce that their opinion has not changed, that would not change the trend of the EUR/USD. The only event that may change this downtrend is that the FOMC lowers rates or gives the impression that this is a possibility or if the ECB gives the impression that they are likely to raise interest rates. We are not likely to see either of those two events today. So we should expect the downtrend to remain intact after today's annoucement.

However, that may not mean selling pressure at 216PM Eastern. Markets seem to get a kick out of catching as many people as possible leaning too far in one direction by moving in the other direction. The expectations of traders are always key here and there is really no way to measure that until you actually see it play out on the charts.  Professional traders will actually take the time to read the FOMC announcement before trading or even wait for their analysts to pick it apart to make sure there is not some hidden meaning in their carefully chosen words. If it works for them, then it should work for us. So read the report first before making a decision. If you are not comfortable doing that, check out what the analysts at DailyFX have to say after they read the report. But be measured in your actions immediately after the release to make sure you aren't one of those leaning too far in the wrong direction.






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