But a closer look shows that the 11/27 high was higher than the 11/2 high which also means a potential change in sentiment. However, the market is now falling back down to the lows of 11/16. In order to confirm this downtrend, I think we need to see this pair trade down through the 1.5945 low from 11/16. That would not only confirm the downtrend might also be an excellent entry into a new sell position. Of course, if the market reverses here and trades up through the 11/27 high, that would confirm that change in sentiment that could mean a new uptrend instead of the downtrend. The markets are unsure of themselves and the coming holiday season will not help, so I think that waiting for confirmation of these moves and adopting a more conservative approach might be the better play until the market clearly shows it's intentions.
I would look for selling opportunites in the EUR/AUD on a move down through the November 16th low of 1.5945.
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