Bearish NZD/USD on Deteriorating NZ Fundamentals, Dovish RBNZ
The BIG Idea: NZD weakness has best been seen lately when pitted against the Australian Dollar. Inflation remains absent in New Zealand while they’ve come off the floor in Australia, which has had the RBNZ and RBA whistling a different tune of late.
Given the RBNZ starting to sound more like an Emerging Market central bank after their new mandate at the hands of PM Ardern included employment, the RBNZ is likely to let their currency drop so their economy does not.
Falling Financial Conditions Alongside Falling NZDUSD Is Just What RBNZ Ordered
Data source: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg
You can see that the GS financial conditions index (FCI) for New Zealand continues to fall alongside the NZ Dollar. This is a similar development as seen in healthier emerging markets that have seen stable or falling financial conditions despite a rising dollar as their currencies have weakened and their central banks have responded in kind.
Given the lack of inflation, and falling NZ Dollar after a dovish performance from Orr, NZ may be in the form of a goldilocks environment where the deteriorating exchange rate in light of little inflation and no credit crisis on the horizon can help the terms of trade and traders looking for more NZ Dollar weakness.
Point to Establish Short Exposure: Pull-back to 0.6950
Target: 0.6800 (November pivot)
Invalidation Level: 0.7050 (May Opening Range High)
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The BIG Picture:
Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT
IG Client Sentiment Highlight: NZ Dollar Set to Fall on Rising Bullish Retail Bias
Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT
The number of traders net-long blue line, has risen aggressively as NZD continues to fall. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZDUSD prices may continue to fall.
More For Your Trading:
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---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT
Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.
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