News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 1.22% 🇨🇭CHF: 1.00% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.76% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.57% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.40% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/cNW9pYcJja
  • Senator Wyden says the Senate Majority Leader's aid proposal is "disastrous" - BBG $SPX $DXY
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 6.08% Gold: 2.12% Oil - US Crude: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BONy6uctXc
  • My top three charts for most wanton volatility this past session in order: Moderna ($MRNA); Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) and $EURGBP (15min)
  • AUD/USD consolidates ahead of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as the data is expected to confirm the first recession in nearly 30 years. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/JFPEGVAZDj https://t.co/0fTHbd6t3t
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.56%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 76.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MSlYB2cBJ4
  • #Sterling Outlook: $GBPUSD Breakout Targets 2019 / 2020 Yearly Highs - https://t.co/reEpFP3uuV https://t.co/4Lq11aWSut
  • US Equity Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.63% $SPX +1.13% $NDX +1.52% $RUT +0.89% $VIX +1.46%
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.05% Wall Street: -0.00% US 500: -0.01% France 40: -0.08% Germany 30: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/THoGZiCXvk
  • Things are popping in the FX market. $EURUSD is working on its biggest rally since March - and third biggest since Jan 12, 2018 when you exclude pandemic volatility. Even more impressive on weekly/monthly charts https://t.co/b7UjY0rEaY
Tactically Bearish USD/JPY on Retracement from 2-Year Lows

Tactically Bearish USD/JPY on Retracement from 2-Year Lows

2018-02-16 16:34:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Point to Establish Short Exposure: Retracement to low of 2017 at 107.32

Spot: 106.03

Initial Target/Point to bring stop to break even:104.20 (100% Fib. Extension of 2017 high)

Swing Target (If not holding trade :) 103.20 (78.6% retracement of 2016-2017 range)

Invalidation Level: 108.50 (Ichimoku 26-day midpoint, 50% retracement of 2016-2017 range)

If you are looking to create your own trading ideas, you may enjoy our FREE Trading Guides

Trade Logic

US Dollar momentum remains heavy, and quietly, the Japanese JPY has moved to the strongest level against the USD since 2016. A key signal can be found from the lack of JPY selling after Japanese PM Shinzo Abe nominated Haruhiko Kuroda to another term at the BoJ. Another Kuroda terms are expected to bring further easing by the Bank of Japan.

Over the trading week, USD/JPY dropped as low as 105.55 before jumping back up to 106 toward the close of the trading week.

Traders looking for an opportunity to jump into the trade to rejoin the downtrend can look to a retracement that moves to a range between the 2017 low at 107.32 and the February 15 high at 107.02.

Multiple Forms Of Technical Analysis Showing Downside Bias

A recent article by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M on USD/JPY pointed to a potential target toward 103 before a broader relief rally ensued, with an alternative view that makes a move to 100 possible.

Technical Outlook Favors Downside Continuation Below 108.50 (Ichimoku Cloud’s Kijun-Sen line)

A clean downside target on USD/JPY would look to Fibonacci levels at 104.20 and is followed by 103.20. The key technical development this week was a move through 106.60 support, which opens the downside momentum and likely takes out a lot of opposing resistance as buyers are likely exiting on well-defined USD weakness.

Traders entering this trade would do well to manage risk by applying a trailing stop. The support near the price targets may cause profit-taking in USD/JPY that could set up for a bounce favored by Jeremy Wagner.

Naturally, momentum is a formidable foe so fighting the trend is not a favored view. Traders would do well to find supporting evidence with price breakout and close above resistance, such as 108.50 or if bold-enough, against aggressive support like 103/100 with a tight stop for fighting this trend.

Access our popular free trading guides to enhance your trading strategy here.

USD/JPY Chart Momentum Indicator, Ichimoku Cloud Applied

Please add a description for the image.

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USDJPY Sentiment Shows Longs Positions Continue to Rise as Price Drops

Please add a description for the image.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Discuss this trade with me below!

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES