News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/wlGgQrcK3X
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/qnQ8Cx0DKv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6u52PuzIaY
Bullish EUR/CAD: Breakout + Macro Forces Favor Upside

Bullish EUR/CAD: Breakout + Macro Forces Favor Upside

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Bias: Bullish EUR/CAD On First Close > 200-DMA (1.4770)

Point to Establish Long Exposure: Daily Close > 1.4770 or Pullback at 1.45/46 Zone

Spot: 1.14778

Target 1: 1.4824 May 9 High

Target 2: 1.5028 April 5 High With Possibility for Move Toward 1.5250+

Invalidation Level: Close Below 78.6% of September Range at 1.4472

Recommended Reading: USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Risk-Aversion Drops Loonie

Bullish EUR/CAD: Breakout + Macro Forces Favor Upside

Something is amiss with the Canadian Economy. The economic data out of Canada has consistently been surprising to the downside and the central bank, the Bank of Canada, is now tilting inflation forecasts lower.

At a speech in New York on Tuesday, Bloomberg Intelligence Economist Richard Yamarone noted that Canada might be heading for a recession. Yamarone elaborated on the view by stating that the Canadian government expected trade and manufacturing to be the “wild cards” that helped the economy avoid a disaster from the crash in energy prices.

The weakness in Emerging Markets and the Commodity Bloc was enough to send USD/CAD to one-month highs on Tuesday. However, a bit more significant was the intraday move above the 200-DMA in EUR/CAD. A daily close above the 200-DMA has not occurred in EUR/CAD since April, but a few components are leading to EUR strength that is worth noting as well.

On September 8, the European Central Bank provided no new hope for EUR bears who were expected the ECB to expand QE bond-buying rules or present speculation of further rate cuts. The EUR has failed to weaken thanks in large part to a strong current account reading that shows a building surplus. The positive account surplus shows that from a trade and investment flow component that more money is coming onshore of the Eurozone than is leaving the Eurozone. Naturally, with stable central bank plans and more money coming into the country than leaving, it is difficult to imagine significant EUR weakness without any of these components changing.

Trade Setup:

The Chart above (D1 EUR/CAD), shows a picture of sideways consolidation that has persisted since late-August 2015. While there was a very aggressive move higher from December to January, this can be interpreted as a sucker’s rally or ‘b’ wave in Elliott Wave parlance that is part of a sideways correction.

In such a technical environment, the million dollar question is when the sideway consolidation will end? Naturally, there is no definitive answer ahead of time, but we can look for clues as to a valid breakout. The first key clue will be a break above 1.4770, the 200-DMA. For those that are confident in further CAD weakness or EUR strength, there may be a better average price entry opportunity on a pullback toward 1.45/46, but we will still be lacking evidence of a developing breakout higher.

Either a breakout or a pullback would present an opportunity given the fundamental setting. Given this environment, a trailing stop would be used above an opposing down-fractal or the 3-day low, whichever is lower on the daily chart. Such a trade would align with a favorable risk: reward ratio that our Traits of Successful Traders report found to be one of the best things a trader can do to ensure long-term sustainability in your trading.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES