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Bullish USDJPY Toward Channel Resistance

Bullish USDJPY Toward Channel Resistance

2015-07-27 12:35:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
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Bias: Bullish Toward Channel Top Near 127

Point to Establish Long Exposure: Into Ichimoku Cloud in the 122.18-123.06 region

Invalidation Level: Channel Low & 100-dma 121.55

Target: 127+

RISING CHANNEL & ICHIMOKU CLOUD LOOK TO SUPPORT USDJPY

The JPY has strengthened vs. the USD ~0.5% on the weekly open after China's Shanghai Index dropped 8.6% to open the week. However, the risk-off sentiment seems to be contained, as is common in clear trends, while technical indicators, specifically Ichimoku & the Andrew's Pitchfork look to provide support.

Looking for a move to the top of the channel on the FOMC announcement later this week. Resistance will be a focal point for many institutions at 124.40 as it has held and allowed USDJPY to print a lower high three times since mid-June.

A break and close above resistance will continue to affirm that upside target of ~127.

Protective stops are placed below the lower median line of the pitchfork and a great deal of force would likely be needed to get there in the form of larger Risk-off sentiment from continued deterioration in global equity and commodity markets.

Shorter-term: if the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line (9-period midpoint) continues to point higher, the bias will remain bullish. If the Tenkan-Sen (black line on chart), turns south, the immediate view will be neutral for larger bias higher.

Other Key USDJPY Levels of Focus:

USD/JPY

* 3rd resistance: 124.38 76.4% Fib Resistance of Corrective Range

* 2nd resistance: 124.19 Lower high & July 23 high

* 1st resistance: 123.57 July 22 low

* Spot: 123.20

* 1st support: 122.92 55-DMA

* 2nd support: 121.55 Protective Stop & 100-DMA

* 3rd support: 120.51 July 8th low & May 5 high

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