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Commodities & China Weigh On AUDUSD

Commodities & China Weigh On AUDUSD

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Bottom Line: Sell Bias

Stop Above 0.7850

Target 1: 0.7598 July Low

Target 2: 0.7450 Weekly S1 Pivot Support

Target 3 (Extreme) 0.7260 Weekly S2 Pivot Support

Background:

Chinese data dissapointments continues to present risk to Australia’s economy and prolong the AUDUSD downtrend.

55-dma also acts as resistance as does the weekly pivot point.

Sentiment shows retail crowd favors longs. The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 2.19 as 69% of traders are long. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the AUDUSD may continue lower.

Commodities & China Weigh On AUDUSD

(Screen capture from DailyFXPlus.com)

The positive correlation to commodities is also unfavorable for longs as oil & gold remain without a sufficient bid with global demand softening.

Daily RSI biased down showing selling pressure. A continuation below 60 on the 5-day RSI would favor downtrend continuation.

Daily Ichimoku Cloud recently provided resistance. The cloud has been steady resistance, only breaking a few times within the last years of a downtrend from 0.9501.

Commodities & China Weigh On AUDUSD

(Created using Marketscope 2.0 charts)

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