AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FORECAST: AUD/USD FORMS BEARISH CHART PATTERN
- AUD/USD looks vulnerable as price action forms a bearish head and shoulders pattern
- Australian Dollar could weaken against its US Dollar peer due to fears of Fed tapering
- Learn about technical analysis and popular chart patterns with DailyFX Education
AUD/USD price action tumbled -0.84% on Wednesday as the US Dollar strengthened notably across the board of major currency pairs. Deteriorating market sentiment likely weighed negatively on the pro-risk Australian Dollar throughout the session, but the move lower by AUD/USD accelerated sharply in response to the latest FOMC minutes. This seems to be helping AUD/USD price action form the right shoulder of an apparent H&S chart pattern.
AUD/USD PRICE CHART: FOUR-HOUR TIME FRAME (21 APRIL TO 19 MAY 2021)
Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView
The Australian Dollar could be vulnerable to another wave of weakness against its US Dollar peer if AUD/USD bulls fail to defend neckline support around the 0.7700-handle. This area of confluent support is also underpinned by the 50-day simple moving average, long-term ascending trendline, and mid-point retracement of the 01 April to 10 May trading range. That said, gauging by the relative strength index and MACD oscillator, bearish momentum has started to pick up again. Invalidating this technical support zone. AUD/USD notching a close with four-hour candlesticks below the 0.7700-price level might invalidate this technical support zone.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 12% | -22% | 1% |
| Weekly | 15% | -27% | 0% |
AUD/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (25 DECEMBER 2020 TO 19 MAY 2021)
Chart by @RichDvorakFX created using TradingView
To that end, slipping beneath the 50-day simple moving average exposes the 04 May swing low and bottom Bollinger Band before the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and year-to-date lows come into focus. On the other hand, if Australian Dollar bulls can maintain technical support around the 0.7700-handle, that could open up the door for a rebound. This scenario might see AUD/USD price action recoil toward nearside resistance posed by Tuesday’s swing high near 0.7815 before looking to the descending trendline that extends through the 25 February and 10 May swing highs.
-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
