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Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY Stalls, Will the Downtrend Resume?

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY Stalls, Will the Downtrend Resume?

2019-11-29 20:05:00
Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
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Canadian Dollar (CAD/JPY) Price Forecast:

Canadian Dollar Outlook: CAD/JPY Stalls, Will the Downtrend Resume?

The Canadian Dollar enjoyed a modest rally versus the Japanese Yen last week, driving from 81.6 to 82.4 in a series of quiet trading sessions. Now, the pair nears resistance that resides around the 83 level and a substantial breakdown in the price of crude oil could be the catalyst needed to see the Canadian Dollar resume lower. As I highlighted a few weeks ago, the Canadian Dollar is suffering from a recent shift in the Bank of Canada’s policy, making it all the more likely a new headwind will work to pressure CAD.

CAD/JPY Price Forecast

To that end, resistance at 83 becomes the level to watch as price action unfolds. Further, the late-October swing high can be considered an area of invalidation for shorter-term bearish positions on CAD/JPY. Another point of interest resides around 81 – a zone that offered modest support in May and June. While noteworthy support exists prior to the 81 spot price, a recent break beneath hints at the weakness of the area. Thus, another successful test of the 200-day moving average would amount to an encouraging sign for further CAD/JPY weakness.

CAD/JPY Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April 2019 – November 2019) (Chart 1)

Canadian Dollar price chart, CAD/JPY

As price action unfolds, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis on this trade setup.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

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