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US Dollar Rally Being Put to the Test: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

US Dollar Rally Being Put to the Test: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

Paul Robinson, Strategist

US Dollar Highlights:

  • EUR/USD near top of downward sloping channel
  • USD/CAD dropping towards confluent support
  • USD/JPY looks wobbly here, watch short-term channel

EUR/USD not long ago broke down out of a multi-week range, and it looked like it might keep on declining, but that view is being put to the test. At the moment price is testing horizontal resistance via daily lows going back to August, while very near the top of the channel running lower off the September 1 high.

A test and turn down soon will keep the general outlook tilted more bearish than bullish, with a chance for selling to extend the trend to a new low below 11612. However, a climb above both horizontal resistance and the channel will tilt the outlook more favorably. It might not lead to a rip-roaring rally, but the risk is that we will continue to see EUR/USD work its way higher towards the high just over 12000.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (running into resistance area)

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

USD/CAD is doing something similar to EUR/USD, but instead of running into strong resistance there is solid support coming up. Tuning to the 4-hr chart, there is a trend-line running off last month’s low that is in confluence with neckline support from the inverse head-and-shoulders recently triggered. Whether you trade price patterns or not, the horizontal level running over from nearly two months ago is an important one with numerous inflection points, mostly as resistance. The area from 13260 to 13230 is considered an important one for the near-term outlook. Hold and USD/CAD could continue to rally, fail and the lows near 13000 will be at risk.

USD/CAD 4-hr Chart (13260/30 is a big spot)

USD/CAD 4-hr chart

USD/CAD Chart by TradingView

USD/JPY is up against a couple of angles of resistance with trend-lines from June and July running over the top of recent price action. The general trend and resistance suggest we could see it sag some more soon towards the 10400 area. Getting in a little closer for timing purposes, keep a close eye on the hourly as a slightly upward sloping channel is keeping price contained. A drop outside of it with a 1-hr closing candle below 10540 (and subsequent daily close) could do the trick to set into a motion another round of selling.

USD/JPY Daily Chart (trend-line resistance)

USD/JPY daily chart

USD/JPY 1-hr Chart (watching channel, 10540)

USD/JPY 1-hr chart

USD/JPY Charts by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.