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EUR/USD Trying to Rally From Basing Pattern to 2008 Trend-line

EUR/USD Trying to Rally From Basing Pattern to 2008 Trend-line

Paul Robinson,

EUR/USD Highlights:

  • Euro basing out for a move higher
  • Breakout could take EUR/USD near 11700

EUR/USD has generally been a choppy mess of price action, but given the rally that came prior to this development, this is a good thing. Since the 2018 peak all rallies have been met with quick turnarounds that led to new cycle lows. But the change in character suggests another rally is brewing.

A breakout above 11422 will have the Euro firmly above the 2018 trend-line and ready to take on the March coronavirus spike-high at 11495. Given the change in character and breaking of the trend-line there appears to be a good chance that level won’t hold as resistance, at least not for long.

A break above there would have a major long-term trend-line in play from the 2008 high, with the line crossing over the 2011, 2014, and 2018 highs. This would be yet another massive test of the long-term downtrend.

For now, we will focus on the likelihood of a boost higher in the short-term, and then worry about what EUR/USD will do in the event it tests the 2008 trend-line. A break below 11168 will be needed to turn the picture back towards the downside.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart (basing around 2018 trend-line)

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

EUR/USD Weekly Chart (2008 trend-line could come into focus)

EUR/USD weekly chart

EUR/USD Chart by TradingView

***Updates will be provided on the above thoughts and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 930 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.