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NZD/JPY – Lower Prices Likely Ahead for Kiwi Against the Japanese Yen

NZD/JPY – Lower Prices Likely Ahead for Kiwi Against the Japanese Yen

Paul Robinson, Strategist

NZD/JPY Highlights:

  • NZD/JPY February horizontal pattern breaking
  • Levels to watch on further weakness

NZD/JPY has been stuck in an unusually clean rectangle pattern around the 200-day since the tail-end of January. The bottom of the pattern is also an old resistance level from a bullish rectangle created during October and November.

It looked set to break on several occasions, but now with the risk-trade firmly on its heels as coronavirus fears become further entrenched, a breakdown appears in the works.

At the time of this writing, NZD/JPY is below the bottom of the formation at 69.94, which could set off a significantly larger sell-off today. However, it will be important for the breakdown to confirm with today closing below the bottom of the pattern.

A confirmed break will have the bottom of the Oct/Nov rectangle in play down under 6900. Beyond there the next support level doesn’t arrive until a trend-line passing up from 2009 under the 2019 low, down around the 6750/6800-area.

As long as a close doesn’t develop back inside the pattern up to around 7030 or higher, then the break will remain valid.

JPY Forecast
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NZD/JPY Daily Chart (breaking out of rectangle)

NZDJPY daily chart

NZD/JPY Chart by TradingView

***Updates will be provided on the above thoughts and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 1030 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.