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Australian Dollar: AUD/USD Technical Outlook May Soon Turn Bearish

Australian Dollar: AUD/USD Technical Outlook May Soon Turn Bearish

Paul Robinson,

Australian Dollar Highlights:

  • AUD/USD rally at a cross-road of trend resistance
  • Short-term up-trend may soon give-way to broader downtrend

The Australian Dollar tagged strong support just below the 6700 line to start last month, and since then has rebounded with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows to keep it pointed higher. The near-term trend could be set up to soon end with resistance in the area.

The trend-line from December, crossing over peaks in April and July, is very near the 200-day MA, which interestingly enough also runs over several highs in the past year. The turn AUD/USD could happen soon as the two forms of trend resistance are effectively in confluence.

A turn down with strong momentum will be indication that a move in-line with the prevailing bear-trend could be underway. Seeing a break of the lower parallel break making up the channel off the Oct low will be considered confirmation that the sub-6700 support tested four times from Aug-Oct will likely be under siege again.

Overnight headline: RBA Let Rate on Hold, As Expected

A fifth attempt at support is seen as having a fairly high likelihood of breaking it, but even as such the 6700/6670 zone should be respected as support until broken. If a surge of buying shows up as it has before, traders who are positioned short should be prepared for a bounce at the least. A slice on through could extend bearish trades towards the 2008-09 lows situated in the area of 6300/000.

In the event there is no turn down soon, and price surges through the aforementioned resistance levels, then a bearish bias will need to be shelved, perhaps in favor of a bullish trading bias as the trend could be reversing course.

Trading Forecasts and Educational Guides for traders of all experience levels can be found on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

AUD/USD Daily Chart (at trend-line/200-day cross-road)

AUD/USD Daily Chart (at trend-line/200-day cross-road)

AUD/USD Chart by TradingView

***Updates will be provided on the above thoughts and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 1030 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.