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Trading Outlook for AUDUSD (Bearish) and USDCAD (Bullish)

Trading Outlook for AUDUSD (Bearish) and USDCAD (Bullish)

2019-03-28 08:58:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

Struggling right now? It happens to the best. Check out these four core ideas to help boost your Confidence as a Trader.

AUDUSD resistance keeps it in check, looking lower

AUDUSD reversed off trend-line resistance last week, posting a weekly reversal. Early this week it tested that reversal but once again found sellers at resistance. Ultimately, as long as Aussie stays below the trend-line and 7168 the outlook is at best neutral.

Looking lower, to help give the downside some traction a lower-low on the 4-hr will be needed. A drop through the March 25 low should do the trick, as well as break the slope since March 14 that has been helping keep Aussie afloat.

The drop lower might not be sharp before a bounce develops, though, as a the low at 7003 and underside trend-line about 30 pips beyond there show up. For short-term traders this still provides some room to operate with. If support is met, giving it a chance to break may be a prudent play, but if a bounce starts to develop then taking a neutral stance at that juncture may serve best.

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AUDUSD Daily Chart (t-line resistance)

AUDUSD daily chart, t-line resistance

AUDUSD 4-hr Chart (breakdown looks near)

AUDUSD 4-hr chart, breakdown looks near

USDCAD bias remains to the upside

I looked at USDCAD back on the 18th when it was trading around the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and noted that one more kick lower to test the neckline could be enough to set it in motion higher. Indeed, the following day we go such price action.

The move higher has been solid so far, with more upside looking to be in the cards soon. Trade above 13467 should have in play the trend-lines from January 2016 and May 2017 along with the high from Dec 31. Look to the trend-line off the late-Feb low as support. If that breaks, then the outlook could turn south quickly.

USDCAD Daily Chart (Looking for more above monthly high)

USDCAD daily chart, looking for a move above the monthly high

***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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