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  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year)
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
Trading Outlook for AUDUSD (Bearish) and USDCAD (Bullish)

Trading Outlook for AUDUSD (Bearish) and USDCAD (Bullish)

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Struggling right now? It happens to the best. Check out these four core ideas to help boost your Confidence as a Trader.

AUDUSD resistance keeps it in check, looking lower

AUDUSD reversed off trend-line resistance last week, posting a weekly reversal. Early this week it tested that reversal but once again found sellers at resistance. Ultimately, as long as Aussie stays below the trend-line and 7168 the outlook is at best neutral.

Looking lower, to help give the downside some traction a lower-low on the 4-hr will be needed. A drop through the March 25 low should do the trick, as well as break the slope since March 14 that has been helping keep Aussie afloat.

The drop lower might not be sharp before a bounce develops, though, as a the low at 7003 and underside trend-line about 30 pips beyond there show up. For short-term traders this still provides some room to operate with. If support is met, giving it a chance to break may be a prudent play, but if a bounce starts to develop then taking a neutral stance at that juncture may serve best.

Looking for Trading Forecasts and Education to assist you in your trading? We’ve got you covered on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

AUDUSD Daily Chart (t-line resistance)

AUDUSD daily chart, t-line resistance

AUDUSD 4-hr Chart (breakdown looks near)

AUDUSD 4-hr chart, breakdown looks near

USDCAD bias remains to the upside

I looked at USDCAD back on the 18th when it was trading around the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and noted that one more kick lower to test the neckline could be enough to set it in motion higher. Indeed, the following day we go such price action.

The move higher has been solid so far, with more upside looking to be in the cards soon. Trade above 13467 should have in play the trend-lines from January 2016 and May 2017 along with the high from Dec 31. Look to the trend-line off the late-Feb low as support. If that breaks, then the outlook could turn south quickly.

USDCAD Daily Chart (Looking for more above monthly high)

USDCAD daily chart, looking for a move above the monthly high

***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.