Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Looking for forecasts, trade ideas, and educational content? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

EUR/USD triangle ready to break, ECB to do it?

The narrowing range (triangle) was a focus last week, thinking it would have broken by now. But so far we remain awaiting a resolution. Today’s ECB meeting could be the catalyst, or not. The last grain of sand may indeed be something else or nothing at all, just more selling than buying or vice versa.

At any rate, the developed triangle is running out of real estate. A top-side break is at risk of failing, with trend/tone working against it along with resistance levels immediately following any breakout which might develop.

A downside break has the trend/tone in its favor. And while there is support nearby via the November low at 11216 and the underside trend-line from November of last year, those levels are further from the apex than resistance is, and given the trend those levels are at greater risk of breaking than top-side levels are.

Triangles, like all chart patterns, need to be validated before full-risk should be put on. A top-side break isn’t that appealing while a downside break is, simply for the reasons mentioned above. While I personally don’t like the idea of buying a bullish break, at the very least it will keep from having on short exposure.

See how other traders are positioned in the Euro via the IG Client Sentiment page.

EUR/USD Daily Chart (Triangle and levels)

EUR/USD daily chart (Triangles and levels)

EUR/USD 4-hr Chart (Triangle near apex)

EUR/USD 4-hr chart (triangle near apex)

***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday’s for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX