We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/3:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/jdzRaFJnaa
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.20% Gold: 0.06% Oil - US Crude: -3.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/GqKRXlbHQc
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.42% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.30% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/6yhR5FFtZw
  • LIVE NOW: Join DailyFX Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak LIVE as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.10%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 68.84%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gvtwxfEvLB
  • Japan coronavirus response package: - Increase subsidy rates for firms to stem job losses - Allow 1 year tax payment delay for virus-shaken companies - Cut property tax to zero for smaller firms (BBG) #JPY #coronavirus
  • - Internal political rifts in Eurozone, #OPEC may be biggest Euro & Brent catalysts this week - Revived North-South tension in Eurozone may cause delays as Riyadh and Moscow dig in heels https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/04/06/Euro-Crude-Oil-May-Suffer-From-OPEC--Eurozone-Political-Rifts.html #oott
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/PVAmCCDR8w
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: Join DailyFX Senior Strategist @IlyaSpivak LIVE as he discusses the outlook for the financial markets in the week ahead! https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/889679267
  • Sharp move upward in AUDUSD with ASX 200 also sharply higher and Yen lower.
USD/CAD Bullish, GBP/NZD Big-picture Pattern Breakout Pending

USD/CAD Bullish, GBP/NZD Big-picture Pattern Breakout Pending

2018-09-06 07:52:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist

Looking for forecasts, trade ideas, and educational content? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

USD/CAD bull-flag breakout to lead to higher prices

In recent weeks, the bull-flag we had previously looked at finally matured with the base of the pattern arriving right at the still-in-play 2012 slope in confluence with the 2016 trend-line. Tuesday’s surge pushed price outside the pattern, positioning it for higher prices.

Buying right here might not be in favor with some as it is short-term extended off the Aug 28 low, but in general the trading bias if higher, whether operating off the daily or a shorter-term time-frame (i.e. 4/1-hr). A pullback or consolidation is the preferred sequence on this end for initiating a trade, with a test and hold of the Feb slope as ideal.

Looking higher, expectations are for USD/CAD to at least trade beyond the June high at 13386, with nothing meaningful in the way of price resistance until near 13800, the May 2017 high. Invalidation on this set-up will come on a drop back inside the pattern near the 13000-mark.

USD/CAD Daily chart (Path of least resistance higher)

USD/CAD daily chart, path of least resistance is higher

GBP/NZD 9-month triangle to lead to powerful move, trading bias

This is a bigger-pic outlook, and despite it being so the weekly chart can be used as a guide for shaping a trading bias when looking for shorter-term set-ups. Price is currently around the top of the triangle dating back to November and could break any day now, but there is still the possibility we see GBP/NZD trade lower from here (maybe even a bearish break of the pattern) before going anywhere.

In either event, when it breaks we’ll run with that as our trading bias and look for short-term set-ups along the path of least resistance. Given the general trend prior to the triangle’s development, a top-side breakout is the most probable scenario. Given the size and duration of the pattern, a lasting, powerful move is anticipated.

These 4 tenets can be used to help Build Confidence in Trading.

GBP/NZD Weekly Chart (Triangle Breakout looms)

GBP/NZD weekly chart, triangle breakout looms

***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Wednesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday’s for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.