EUR/AUD Bearish Set-up, USD/CAD Has Upside Potential
Check out the DailyFX Q3 Euro Forecast for our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective.
EUR/AUD broken range retest, bear-flag forming
EUR/AUD underwent brutal range trading conditions from late June into the early-part of this month. That was snapped with the big down day on 8/3, which has been recently followed up by a retest of the underside of the range. Old support becomes new resistance.
In addition to the bottom of the range, a trend-line from last month’s high is crossing over peaks from yesterday and today. This has the area over 15700 as firm resistance. Furthermore, a bear-flag is developing. A break of the underside parallel should bring in more selling.
Looking lower, there are trend-lines from July and September from last year as support in the vicinity of 15500/15430. They are a good distance lower from here, providing ample room for profit potential. Should we see sustained trade beyond yesterday’s high at 15726, then price will be back inside the range and invalidate the current set-up.
EUR/AUD 4-hr chart (Range retest/bear-flag)
Not to get ahead of ourselves here, but if momentum turns out to be strong on any push lower and the trend-lines were to break, a big-picture head-and-shoulders pattern could come into play as the neckline becomes the next level of support. This could end up being one of those opportunities where a short-term set-up with decent risk/reward morphs into a much larger opportunity. We’ll delve further into this at a later time should it become relevant.
See the IG Client Sentiment Index to view how other traders are positioned, and why this can act as a powerful contrarian indicator.
EUR/AUD Daily Chart (H&S Potential, not there yet of course)
USD/CAD in the process of building a bull-flag
USD/CAD held trend-line support not long ago, and with that furthering along the possibility of a bull-flag to form. The sequence is still bearish off the June high, so there is still risk that it could develop into a stronger downtrend. But should we see a break above the top-side trend-line of the developing bull-flag and also above the 8/13 high, we could be in for another drive higher in-line with the broader upward bias since last year. At the very least in this scenario we’ll be looking for a higher-high above 13382.
USD/CAD Daily Chart (Bull-flag potential)
***Updates will be provided on these ideas and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Wednesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday’s for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.