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USD/JPY Long Attractive on Pullback, AUD/NZD Wedge Breakout Very Near

USD/JPY Long Attractive on Pullback, AUD/NZD Wedge Breakout Very Near

2018-07-30 12:26:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

The following set-ups are higher conviction opportunities we looked at in Friday's webinar, today we’ll go into a bit more detail on the set-ups.

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective on major currencies and markets, check out the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

USD/JPY is an attractive long candidate

There are several lines of support USD/JPY is currently trading around; top of 2015 trend-line, March trend-line, and the top of the ascending wedge it broke out of earlier this month. There have been a couple of key-reversal bars in recent sessions, with the most powerful one developing on Thursday.

This makes for an attractive situation for would-be longs. A sufficient break below the Thursday low would be reason to bail on this idea. Looking higher there isn’t anything substantial standing in the way until over the 11300-mark. The distance from stop (~11038, 20 pips below the Thursday low) and potential target allow for sufficient risk/reward.

Check out these 4 core tenets for Building Confidence in Trading.

USD/JPY Daily Chart (Reversal at confluence of support)

USD/JPY daily chart, reversal at confluence of support

AUD/NZD very near breaking out

The wedge formation on the 4-hr chart in AUD/NZD could break at any time now. At the time of this writing, it is probing the bottom of the pattern. A clean 4-hr candle close outside of the wedge is needed before taking action.

The size of the pattern implies about a 120-point measured move target, but looking to the downside the trend-line from April might shorten the trade. However, there is still sufficient room for a quick trade. On the topside, the recent peaks may give upward momentum some opposition, but the power of the pattern should allow AUD/NZD to overcome these short-term obstacles beyond 11000 (so, an upside move may hold the most potential). Either way, AUD/NZD looks set to make a move soon.

Stops should be placed inside the pattern on a strong breakout and for a weak breakout it should be placed beyond the opposing line of the pattern (shorts = stop above top-side trend-line, longs = stop below bottom-side trend-line).

AUD/NZD 4-hr Chart (Breakout from wedge very near)

AUD/NZD 4-hr chart, wedge breakout very near

***Updates will be provided on these idea and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Wednesday and Friday.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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