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USD/JPY Long Attractive on Pullback, AUD/NZD Wedge Breakout Very Near

USD/JPY Long Attractive on Pullback, AUD/NZD Wedge Breakout Very Near

Paul Robinson, Strategist

The following set-ups are higher conviction opportunities we looked at in Friday's webinar, today we’ll go into a bit more detail on the set-ups.

For our intermediate-term fundamental and technical perspective on major currencies and markets, check out the DailyFX Q3 Forecasts.

USD/JPY is an attractive long candidate

There are several lines of support USD/JPY is currently trading around; top of 2015 trend-line, March trend-line, and the top of the ascending wedge it broke out of earlier this month. There have been a couple of key-reversal bars in recent sessions, with the most powerful one developing on Thursday.

This makes for an attractive situation for would-be longs. A sufficient break below the Thursday low would be reason to bail on this idea. Looking higher there isn’t anything substantial standing in the way until over the 11300-mark. The distance from stop (~11038, 20 pips below the Thursday low) and potential target allow for sufficient risk/reward.

Check out these 4 core tenets for Building Confidence in Trading.

USD/JPY Daily Chart (Reversal at confluence of support)

USD/JPY daily chart, reversal at confluence of support

AUD/NZD very near breaking out

The wedge formation on the 4-hr chart in AUD/NZD could break at any time now. At the time of this writing, it is probing the bottom of the pattern. A clean 4-hr candle close outside of the wedge is needed before taking action.

The size of the pattern implies about a 120-point measured move target, but looking to the downside the trend-line from April might shorten the trade. However, there is still sufficient room for a quick trade. On the topside, the recent peaks may give upward momentum some opposition, but the power of the pattern should allow AUD/NZD to overcome these short-term obstacles beyond 11000 (so, an upside move may hold the most potential). Either way, AUD/NZD looks set to make a move soon.

Stops should be placed inside the pattern on a strong breakout and for a weak breakout it should be placed beyond the opposing line of the pattern (shorts = stop above top-side trend-line, longs = stop below bottom-side trend-line).

AUD/NZD 4-hr Chart (Breakout from wedge very near)

AUD/NZD 4-hr chart, wedge breakout very near

***Updates will be provided on these idea and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Wednesday and Friday.

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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