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Short USD/CHF on Confirmed Break of Rising Wedge

Short USD/CHF on Confirmed Break of Rising Wedge

What's on this page

USD/CHF Trade Highlights:

  • USD/CHF bearish rising wedge in context of downtrend
  • Close outside of pattern triggers trade
  • Looking for a new swing-low from February

For longer-term set-ups, check out our Top Trading Opportunities for 2018

The grinding rally in USD/CHF since the low last month has carved out a rising wedge within the context of the downtrend dating back to November. The overall tone to the dollar has been corrective in nature, with the price pattern in USD/CHF highlighting this behavior.

At the time of this writing, price is outside of the wedge, but for confirmation a closing daily bar below the lower trend-line of the pattern is needed to trip the trigger for a short. Stop-losses can conservatively be placed above the 3/20 swing-high, out of harm’s way.

There are some minor support levels when looking lower, but in looking to a new swing-low from last month, there is support from May 2015 down surrounding 9100. Tentatively targeting the area just above in the event a reversal prior to the reaching the depths of support. However, should there be strong momentum upon approach then holding to see if a break is a prudent approach. We’ll address this later should it become relevant.

Risk/reward on the trade is over 1:2 based on current levels. This is taking into account a stop-loss above the 3/20 swing-high placed at 9589, with a target above support placed at 9125. For those traders who perhaps don’t have hold-time objectives ranging up to several weeks, can use the pattern break to shape their short-term trading bias when looking for set-ups on say the 4-hr time-frame.

You can follow along on this idea and others provided weekly, in the trading/technical outlook webinars held on Wednesday and Friday .

Struggling with confidence? You’re not alone. These 4 ideas may get you back on track – Building Confidence in Trading.

USD/CHF Daily Chart (Rising Wedge on Verge of Breaking)

usd/chf daily chart with rising wedge

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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