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AUD/NZD Trade Set-up:

  • Swing trade in progress, targeting 2015 trend-line
  • Descending wedge on 4-hr for shorter-term maneuver

Check out our Top Trade Ideas for 2018 on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

On Feb 6, AUD/NZD broke the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern we were looking at back on Jan 23. It was only a couple of days later there was a thorough retest of the neckline which resulted in a key-reversal bar.

The pattern break itself was enough to turn bearish, the rejection via the key reversal bar even more so. This is a big pattern, so if it is to eventually move to target in the 10450/500 area it could take a while. With that said, traders who don’t have targeted hold times measured in weeks can look to trade along the path of least resistance.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

aud/znd daily chart with head-and-shoulders pattern

With that said, there is a descending wedge developing on the 4-hr time-frame below the neckline which is set to trigger soon. The height of the pattern points to a measured move target of ~10600, which aligns with support from back in July.

AUD/NZD 4-hr Chart

audnzd 4hr chart with descending wedge formation below neckline

Tactical approach:

  • Multi-week trade in full swing with stop above 2/8 high, targeting 2015 trend-line, ~10450/500
  • Shorter-term traders can look to break of the descending wedge, targeting ~10600

****An update will be provided on this set-up and others in the Wednesday and Friday technical webinars.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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