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EURGBP Price Outlook - Rally Running Out of Momentum

EURGBP Price Outlook - Rally Running Out of Momentum

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


The DailyFX Q2 2019 Forecasts arenow available to download including our forecasts for GBP and EUR.

EURGBP has enjoyed a strong rally of late, adding nearly two cents after trading at a low of 0.8490 on May 5. This strong rally may find further upside difficult as it nears robust resistance levels at 0.8718 – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement – followed by 0.87233 – March 21 ‘spike’ high – and 0.87650, the 200-day moving average which has capped the pair since mid-January.

Another indicator – CCI – shows EURGBP in overbought territory but just starting to level off, and this may also weigh on any further upside momentum in the near-term. We noted on April 24 that EURGBP was in overbought territory using CCI just before the sell-off down to 0.8490.

The battle for dominance between the two currencies continues with the EUR suffering from a weak EZ economic backdrop, and a German Bond curve showing negative yields out to 10-years, while GBP has to suffer continued Brexit uncertainty. GBP does have the slight economic advantage with a tight jobs market nudging hawkish BOE policy thoughts, while recent GDP data shows the UK economy expanding faster than the Euro-Zone.

EURGBP Levels to Note: Current Spot Price – 0.8680

To the upside – 0.87180, 0.87233 and 0.87650.

To the downside – 0.86355, 0.86240 and 0.85910.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – May 15, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment Data show how retail investors are positioned in a range of currencies and asset markets and how daily and weekly positional changes shift sentiment.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURGBP – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.