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GBPNZD: Pending Long on a Sell-Off

GBPNZD: Pending Long on a Sell-Off

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

GBPNZD – Pending Long

  • Looking for a sub-GBPNZD 2.000 set-up.
  • New Zealand CPI and UK data and Brexit news may open the way.

The DailyFX Q4GBP Forecast is available to download.

A long Sterling position may seem a risky proposition ahead of EU/UK Brexit talks but it may also offer the short-term sell-off we are looking for to enter a position against a currently weak New Zealand dollar. Before we enter the position, we look for the pair to trade to have broken the short-term downtrend and to trade around 1.9870 compared to the current level of 2.0110. Below is a list of releases and events that may push GBPNZD down to our in-price.

Notable GBPNZD Events this Week (w/c October 15, 2018)

New Zealand CPI – Monday October 15.

UK Wages and Employment – Tuesday October 16.

UK CPI – Wednesday October 17.

EU Summit (Brexit) Wednesday/Thursday October 17/18.

UK Retail Sales – Thursday October 18.

The daily price chart shows the 10-day low at 1.9870, the breakout candle that took the pair to its recent high of 2.0480. It is also the same level as the 200-day moving average on the four-hour chart, which has acted as trend support since August 29. The pair tried to break this support on September 21-23 and October 2 but failed. On the short-term chart the pair are also nearing oversold territory.

GBPNZD Daily Price Chart (March – October 15, 2018)

GBPNZD Four-Hour Price Chart (August 14- October 15, 2018)

DailyFX analyst Paul Robinson’s video on how to become a better, more consistent trader is a must listen for market participants seeking an edge. As Paul notes early in his piece, ‘Markets are too dynamic, full of too much uncertainty, to try and navigate them without a framework in place. Trading plans are imperative for creating consistent results'. Becoming a Better Trader – How to Create a Trading Plan.

Traders may also be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.