News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • video of today's webinar posted + ready to go. $USD the focus, $Gold got a look, too (~25 mins in) https://t.co/ogyrmiJDey
  • Italy's Franco: GDP likely negative in Q1, but positive in Q2
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.33% Silver: -0.09% Oil - US Crude: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hrEmoKJmOC
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Breakout Potential– #Loonie Levels - https://t.co/yo2PAylSpr https://t.co/YGmglD6lDh
  • Italy's Finance Minister Franco: - We expect Q1 GDP to fall 1.2% from Q4 2020 - Recovery plan will be presented to EU commission on time $EUR
  • The Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ETF recorded its largest single-day outflow since October on Friday. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/TFWOqReZiA https://t.co/w18wvwaw00
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/osKbtin36O
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.24% FTSE 100: 0.21% France 40: 0.01% US 500: -0.83% Wall Street: -0.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6Vjfga9BAY
  • $EURCAD has continued to strengthen today, rising from below 1.5100 by over 50 pips to currently trade above 1.5150, at a six week high. $EUR $CAD https://t.co/sSlYtGCF4r
  • After rising back above the 1.60% level to a high around 1.63% earlier today, US 10yr Treasury yields have moved back lower. They are now trading around an intraday low of 1.56%. $USD https://t.co/5hQglZl4fU
USDCAD: Recent Sell-Off Gives Bulls a New Opportunity * Update *

USDCAD: Recent Sell-Off Gives Bulls a New Opportunity * Update *

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Check out our New Q3 Trading Forecasts: they’re free and include our latest analysis on USD, CAD and Oil – all important drivers of USDCAD.

  • US dollar to get a Hawkish Fed boost.
  • Long-term moving average remains bullish, Fibonacci gives support.

*** Update August 6, 2018 – -- Going Flat on USDCAD ***

We have cut are USDCAD position – roughly no cost – and will remain on the side-lines until both technical and fundamental indicators take a more positive tone. While we still believe in the position in the medium-term, in a shorter time-frame better entry levels may be available. We would like to see how the pair react to a test of the 1.2952 Fibonacci retracement level which opens 50% retracement at 1.2818 and the 200-day moving average at 1.2830. From a fundamental point of view, the US dollar rally remains intact, but upside momentum is slowing while the Canadian dollar is gradually gaining strength as the market continues to price in an interest rate hike by the end of the year. We also have important data from mid-week onwards, culminating with Friday’s jobs data.

USDCAD: Recent Sell-Off Gives Bulls a New Opportunity * Update *

Original Story

USDCAD Rebound to Take Shape

USDCAD is set to turn higher, driven by US dollar strength and a lull in the price of oil. US Treasury yields provide a solid foundation for the greenback and are set to move even higher over the next few weeks with the FOMC fully expected to hike interest rates, for the third time, by 0.25% at the September meeting. Ahead of that, today’s FOMC meeting will give Fed Chair Jerome Powell an opportunity to underline the strength of the US economy with Q2 growth in excess of 4% while US unemployment remains at a multi-decade low. The 2-year US Treasury currently yields a near-decade high of 2.675%, while the 10-year UST is a couple of basis points under the psychological 3%. Further, renewed trade war fears – and the impact of a slowing global economy - will weigh on the price of oil, an important driver of the Canadian dollar.

USDCAD currently trades around 1.3020, having broken below the 1.3000 level this week, prompting market headlines. The pair however traded straight back above this level which is protected on the downside by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2952. USDCAD trades just below the 20- and 50-day moving averages but above the long-term 200-day ma, currently at 1.2825. A second level of Fibonacci support, the 50% retracement, sits at 1.2820.

Short-term upside targets are situated between 1.3118 and 1.31365 – 23.6% Fibonacci and 20- and 50-day moving averages. After this the July19-20 double top at 1.3290 comes into view.

USDCAD Daily Price Chart (November 2017 – August 1, 2018)

USDCAD: Recent Sell-Off Gives Bulls a New Opportunity * Update *

Entry Point: 1.3020

Target 1: 1.31365 (50-day moving average)

Target 2: 1.3290 (July 19-20 double top)

Stop-Loss: 1.2920 (below 38.2% retracement)

You may like to look at our Free Trading Guides which include Building Confidence in Trading, the Number One Mistake Traders Make and Top Trading Lessons, important pre-trade information.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES