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Pending EURUSD

Pending EURUSD

2010-07-19 14:08:00
Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

The EUR/USD has rebounded off its low of 1.1876 to currently trade at 1.2965. As I have a bearish bias for this pair, I will look to enter a short position with a clear break below the 100-day SMA. I am bearish the euro for a multitude of reasons. During the overnight session, Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s credit rating from Aa2 to Aa1, citing a rising debt burden. This announcement trails the rating agency downgrading Portugal’s debt from Aa2 to A1, while Fitch affirmed its “negative outlook” for Portugal last week. Also worrisome overnight was Hungary’s failure to tap into the IMF/EU emergency funds of 20 billion euros, which in turn lead the country’s 10 year notes to jump 20 basis points to 7.50 percent. On another note, the U.S. dollar has lost ground against the euro as fundamental data in the world’s largest economy continues to disappoint. However, as sentiment in the 16 member euro area continues to gain momentum, I do not rule out euro bullish price action in the near term, but, as fears in the bloc resurface, a break back below the 100 day SMA will expose support at 1.25. As for this week, the euro will look to the ECB stress tests for next moves.

With reference to my trades last week, my short GBPUSD at 1.550 was shy of being triggered as price action rose to a high of 1.5474 before reversing course to currently trade at 1.5238. Additionally, my short EURJPY entry did not activate as we continue to see a lackluster performance in that pair. Nonetheless, as the USD/CHF looks to remain capped by the 10 day SMA, with the RSI slowly recovering from oversold levels, I may look to take off my Long entry position at 1.0605. All in all, I will continue to monitor the EUR/USD and USD/CHF at the moment. Good luck trading!

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