Near-term Technical Outlook: Trade Setups on USD/CAD, AUD/USD & NZD/USD
- Technical charts on trade setup we’ve been tracking in USD/CAD, AUD/USD & NZD/USD
- Recent commodity bloc rally- rebound or reversal?
- Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi recovery eyeing trend resistance- April opening-ranges in focus
An update on trade setups we've been tracking inthe Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. The recent commodity bloc recovery may have more room to stretch, but the levels are well-defined as the rallies eye near-term trend extremes. These are the technical targets and invalidation levels that heading this week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of thesetrade setups and more.
Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview
In last month’s AUD/USD Technical Outlook we noted to be on the lookout for, “topside exhaustion ahead of 7800 IF price is indeed heading lower on this stretch.” In intraday high briefly registered at 7849 one week later before reversing sharply lower into the close of March. The decline is now testing confluence support at the lower parallel / yearly opening-range low at 7563 into the April open. Daily resistance now stands with the objective yearly open / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 7701/13- look for exhaustion ahead of this zone IF price is indeed heading lower. A break / close below 7563 is still needed to fuel the next leg towards more critical support at the 2018 may low-day close / 100% extension at 7455/63- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Review my latest Aussie Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.11 (52.54% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions are 11.10% higher than yesterday and 9.69% lower from last week
- Short positions are3.21% higher than yesterday and 0.09% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -13% | 41% | -3% |
| Weekly | -11% | 18% | -5% |
Canadian Dollar - USD/CAD at Risk for Downside Exhaustion
In today’s Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted the outside-day reversal USD/CAD is making into fresh April lows- is this an exhaustion sell-off? The focus into the start of the week is on key near-term support at 1.2473/85- this level would need to hold support IF USD/CAD is to respect the late-Mach uptrend. Daily resistance into the 1.26-handle. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview
In my last New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we highlighted a key support zone in NZD/USD heading into the close of March at 6903/42- a region defined by the 2019 swing high and the 100% extension of the February decline. The top of this 40-pip support zone held two separate attempts and now defines the April opening-range lows. Daily resistance stands at the 2018 yearly open / 78.6% retracement at 7094-7111- risk for topside exhaustion heading into this zone this week. Monthly open support at 6983 with a break lower risking another bout of accelerated loses towards the 68-handle and beyond. Ultimately a close above the March 18th outside-day reversal close at 7161 would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last month.
New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.08 (51.97% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions are 13.02% higher than yesterday and 18.35% lower from last week
- Short positions are 2.17% higher than yesterday and 0.92% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed NZD/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -14% | 45% | 2% |
| Weekly | -22% | 47% | -5% |
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex
