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Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & USD/JPY

Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & USD/JPY

2019-12-12 20:36:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist

Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

The Canadian Dollar found favor this week with USD/CAD paring last week’s NFP advance after failing at key near-term resistance at the confluence of the 61.8% retracement of the late-November decline and the objective monthly open at 1.3263/70. The decline keeps price within with the confines of this descending pitchfork formation with price testing the December range lows today in US trade.

Initial resistance now 1.3216 with near-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.3229. Key support rests at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3151 backed closely by the lower parallel and 1.3134- a break below this threshold is needed to keep the short-bias viable with such a scenario exposing the 100% extension at the 1.31-handle. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.10 (52.43% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 29.93% higher than yesterday and 17.88% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 20.64% lower than yesterday and 25.23% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -3% -3% -3%
Weekly -34% 5% -17%
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Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

In my most recent Euro Technical Price Outlook we noted that the EUR/USD recovery was, “trading just below confluence resistance around the 1.11-handle and leaves the immediate recovery vulnerable near-term while below.” Price broke sharply higher post-FOMC yesterday with the advance reversing off slope resistance at the 75% parallel today in US Trade. That pullback is now testing this former resistance zone as support and the focus is on a reaction here into the close of the week.

A break lower from here would expose 1.1078 backed by the lower parallel / weekly opening-range low at 1.1053- we’ll reserve this threshold as our bullish invalidation level. Topside resistance targets unchanged at 1.1167 backed by 1.1186 and 1.1209 (critical). Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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USD/JPY Breakout or Fake-out? Rally Eyes First Major Resistance Hurdles

In today’s Japanese Yen Price Outlook we noted that a breach of the weekly opening-range shifted the focus higher in USD/JPY with the next major topside resistance objectives eyed at the December open at 109.52 and the 2019 yearly open at 109.68. Looking for possible near-term exhaustion off one of these levels into the start of next week. Initial support 109 with near-term bullish invalidation set to 108.80. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

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