Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & AUD/USD
- Updated levels on trade setup we’ve been tracking in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & AUD/USD
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT (8:30am ET)
- Check out our 2018 projections in our Free DailyFX US Dollar Trading Forecasts
Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min
In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was, “approaching a critical resistance threshold and we’re on the lookout for near-term topside exhaustion up here.” The resistance zone in focus is 1.3335/55- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of May decline and the May high-day close. The advance remains vulnerable into this region.
Initial support rests with the lower parallel / 1.3252 – a break / close below this threshold is needed to suggest a larger decline is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives at 1.3384 and 1.3435/37 (critical) in the event of a breach. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.
Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -3.07 (24.56% of traders are long) – bullish reading
- Long positions are 2.27% higher than yesterday and 15.73% lower from last week
- Short positions are 9.16% higher than yesterday and 20.38% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 240min
In my most recent Euro Technical Price Outlook we noted that, EUR/USD was, “trading just below near-term downslope resistance.” Price tested and failed pitchfork resistance late-last week before turning lower with the decline now straddling confluence support at 1.1012/15. Critical support remains just lower at 1.0994 with a break / close below the low-week close at 1.0976 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
That’s said, watch out for possible exhaustion down here at the monthly opening-range lows. Resistance / near-term bearish invalidation stands with the upper parallel / last-week’s open at 1.1047- look for a breach there to suggest a more recovery is underway. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
Australian Dollar Faces Retest of Key Support / Monthly Range Lows
In today’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a well-defined weekly opening-range in AUD/USD just above the November lows / key Fibonacci support at 6770. Price has continued to trade just below the November trendline and the focus is on a break of this near-term compression range. We’re on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion into these lows with a breach above 6810 ultimately needed to fuel a larger recovery. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.