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Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & GBP/USD

Near-term Trade Setups in USD/CAD, EUR/USD & GBP/USD

2019-08-22 18:44:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

Loonie Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min

Loonie Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

In my most recent Canadian Dollar Price Outlook, we noted that USD/CAD was approaching, “uptrend resistance just higher and we’re looking for a reaction on a stretch into 1.3338/55.” Price registered a high at 1.3345 this week before faltering with Loonie holding a tight weekly opening-range just below resistance. While the broader focus remains weighted to the topside, the advance is vulnerable below this threshold- look to the breakout for guidance.

A topside breach exposes the median-line backed by confluence resistance at 1.3435/37. A break lower would expose monthly open support at 1.3190 backed bullish invalidation at 1.3141/15. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term view of the USD/CAD technical trade levels.

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

Loonie Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.67 (37.5% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Traders have remained net-short since July 23rd; price has moved 1.8% higher since then
  • Long positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 32.7% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 21.6% lower than yesterday and 3.5% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Sterling Recovery Facing First Test

Highlighted this setup including the near-term trading levels in today’s GBP/USD Price Outlook. An outside-day reversal off support earlier this week shifted our focus higher in Sterling with the price recovery now testing the first major test at confluence support near 1.2250. Immediate threat for a pullback here but we’ll favor fading weakness while above the monthly open targeting 1.23 and beyond. For a longer-term look at the Sterling technical trading levels review my latest GBP/USD Weekly Outlook.

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

EUR/USD 240min Price Chart

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 240min - Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

In my Euro trade update we highlighted a break of a near-term consolidation range just below downtrend resistance in EUR/USD targeting 1.1106. The decline registered a low at 1.1064 today with the weekly opening-range intact just above monthly open support at 1.1075 heading into Friday trade. Look for the breakout here - ultimately, a breach higher would expose 1.1162 with a close above 1.1186 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place.

From a trading standpoint, I’d favor a final washout towards the median-line before a larger recovery. Weakness beyond the monthly / yearly low at 1.1026 would mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term view of the USD/CAD technical trade levels.

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at 2.1 (67.7% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 2.5% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 25.2% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 11.1% lower than yesterday and 25.5% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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