Near-term Trade Setups in EUR/USD & AUD/USD
- Updated levels on trade setup we’ve been tracking in Euro (EUR/USD) & Aussie (AUD/USD)
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT (8:30am ET)
- Check out our 2018 projections in our Free DailyFX US Dollar Trading Forecasts
Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.
Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min
In my most recent Euro Technical Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was, “testing downtrend resistance - From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of this near-term consolidation for guidance.” The weekly opening-range resolved lower this today with the decline now testing a near-term support confluence at 1.1138/43 – looking for a reaction here. A break below this zone would keep the focus lower towards the 61.8% retracement / last week’s open at 1.1106/12. Look for initial resistance back at 1.1182/87 with a breach above 1.1223 needed to shift the broader focus higher in Euro.
EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.22 (55.0% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
- Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 2.0% lower since then
- Long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 2.1% lower from last week
- Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Aussie Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min
In last week’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a major support confluence at 6733/45 – a region defined by the January swing low and the 1.618% extension of the decline off the yearly highs. Aussie is testing this zone yet again today – a break below would expose another run at the lows near 6677 and beyond. We’re on the lookout for a pivot in price down here. Initial resistance at the weekly open backed by 6828/32 - a breach / close above 6855 would be needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. Review my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.
AUD/USD Trader Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -3.18 (76.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
- Traders have remained net-long since July 19th; price has moved 3.8% lower since then
- Long positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 1.6% lower from last week
- Short positions are 11.9% lower than yesterday and 8.4% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current Aussie positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.