Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min - Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

In my most recent Euro Technical Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was, “testing downtrend resistance - From a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a breakout of this near-term consolidation for guidance.” The weekly opening-range resolved lower this today with the decline now testing a near-term support confluence at 1.1138/43 – looking for a reaction here. A break below this zone would keep the focus lower towards the 61.8% retracement / last week’s open at 1.1106/12. Look for initial resistance back at 1.1182/87 with a breach above 1.1223 needed to shift the broader focus higher in Euro.

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

EUR/USD Trader Sentiment

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at -1.22 (55.0% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 1st; price has moved 2.0% lower since then
  • Long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 2.1% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 8.5% lower than yesterday and 6.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Aussie Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min

Aussie Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min - Technical Outlook

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

In last week’s Australian Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted a major support confluence at 6733/45 – a region defined by the January swing low and the 1.618% extension of the decline off the yearly highs. Aussie is testing this zone yet again today – a break below would expose another run at the lows near 6677 and beyond. We’re on the lookout for a pivot in price down here. Initial resistance at the weekly open backed by 6828/32 - a breach / close above 6855 would be needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. Review my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.

AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

Aussie Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at -3.18 (76.1% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since July 19th; price has moved 3.8% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.3% lower than yesterday and 1.6% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 11.9% lower than yesterday and 8.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current Aussie positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex