Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

EURUSD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 120min - Weekly Price Analog

In this week’s EUR/USD Price Outlook, we noted that our, “focus remains on support targets lower at 1.1362/66 and 1.1345 – we’re looking for possible price exhaustion on a move into these levels.” I’ve been following an analog from last week’s price action for guidance – and it’s worked rather well! Price registered a low at 1.1336 before reversing sharply on Friday on the heels of the US 3Q GDP release.

Holding longs off 1.1345 – 1/4 closed at the median-line with stops a breakeven heading into the weekend. Next target is 1.1432 - ultimately a breach the upper parallel would be needed to alleviate further downside pressure. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from this week’s update. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setup and more.

Learn the traits of a successful trader in our free eBook!

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/JPY 240min Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - 240min

Last week we highlighted that USD/JPY was approaching a key support barrier at the lower parallel of a pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows. A failed attempt to break back above the yearly open at 112.65 cast a bearish stance on price- I’ve been in short for a few days now and while the initial break looked good on Friday, a mid-session recovery took price back towards parallel support (now resistance). We need a hold below parallel resistance for this to work.

Stops are at breakeven into the weekend with a move lower targeting the 38.2% retracement at 110.76. Near-term bearish invalidation remains at 112.65/74. Keep in mind we have the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on tap next week. Intraday trade levels remain unchanged from this month’s USD/JPY Technical Outlook.

USD/JPY Trader Sentiment

USD/JPY Trader Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.15 (53.4% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are13.8% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 19.9% lower than yesterday and 13.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed US/DJPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Find yourself getting trigger shy or missing opportunities? Learn how to build Confidence in Your Trading

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com