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Near-term Trade Setups in EUR/USD and USD/JPY

Near-term Trade Setups in EUR/USD and USD/JPY

Michael Boutros, Strategist

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EURUSD 120min Price Chart

EUR/USD Price Chart - 120min - Weekly Price Analog

In this week’s EUR/USD Price Outlook, we noted that our, “focus remains on support targets lower at 1.1362/66 and 1.1345 – we’re looking for possible price exhaustion on a move into these levels.” I’ve been following an analog from last week’s price action for guidance – and it’s worked rather well! Price registered a low at 1.1336 before reversing sharply on Friday on the heels of the US 3Q GDP release.

Holding longs off 1.1345 – 1/4 closed at the median-line with stops a breakeven heading into the weekend. Next target is 1.1432 - ultimately a breach the upper parallel would be needed to alleviate further downside pressure. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from this week’s update. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setup and more.

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USD/JPY 240min Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - 240min

Last week we highlighted that USD/JPY was approaching a key support barrier at the lower parallel of a pitchfork formation extending off the yearly lows. A failed attempt to break back above the yearly open at 112.65 cast a bearish stance on price- I’ve been in short for a few days now and while the initial break looked good on Friday, a mid-session recovery took price back towards parallel support (now resistance). We need a hold below parallel resistance for this to work.

Stops are at breakeven into the weekend with a move lower targeting the 38.2% retracement at 110.76. Near-term bearish invalidation remains at 112.65/74. Keep in mind we have the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on tap next week. Intraday trade levels remain unchanged from this month’s USD/JPY Technical Outlook.

USD/JPY Trader Sentiment

USD/JPY Trader Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.15 (53.4% of traders are long) – weak bearishreading
  • Long positions are13.8% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 19.9% lower than yesterday and 13.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed US/DJPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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