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  • Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long Oil - US Crude since Jan 06 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5,008.80. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Oil - US Crude strength.
  • US Indices are struggling again today. The Nasdaq is now down 10% from the record highs of mid February, entering correction territory. The $VIX has risen to its highest level since last week's bond market event. DOW -1.31% NDX -2.37% SPX -1.48% RUT -2.68% $DIA $QQQ $SPY $IWM
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  • Overall, Powell sticks with the current Fed stance and hence the move with the USD and UST yields higher, while gold tests 1700
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  • $DXY US Dollar Index spiking to session highs on the back of this move in yields. $EURUSD tumbling down to the 1.2000-level.
Near-term Setups in AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Near-term Setups in AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Here's an update on USD crosses we’ll be tracking into the start of next week against the Australian Dollar, British Pound and Japanese Yen. Keep in mind it’s a big week of event risk with a host of central bank rate decisions and the North Korean Summit likely to fuel added market volatile. For a complete breakdown of these setups and more, review this week’s Strategy Webinar.

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AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

In this week’s Australian Dollar Technical Outlook we noted that price was attempting, “the first major test of resistance on the heels of last month’s reversal and may limit the topside advances near-term. . . Initial support rests along the median-line with our near-term focus higher while above 7559 (both areas of interest for possible re-entry).”

AUD/USD has since (low registered at 7561). Aussie tested the lower median-line parallel of the pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking since the start of the week at 7559 (low register at 7561) before rebounding. IF there is more upside to go, look for a hold above this low. Ultimately a break below 7513 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Topside resistance levels unchanged.

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GBP/USD 120min Price Chart

GBP/USD Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

Our ‘Bottom line’ cited in this week’s GBP/USD Technical Outlook noted that, “IF the Pound has put in a low, look for support to hold at the weekly open at 1.3345 with our bullish invalidation level at 1.3302.” Sterling registered a low at 1.3353 before rebounding today. If recent price action is just a bear flag, look for topside advances to be capped by yearly open resistance at 1.3504- until then our levels / outlook remain unchanged heading into the start of the week.

See how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

USD/JPY240min Price Chart

USD/JPY Price Chart - 240min Timeframe

We highlighted this near-term resistance confluence at 110.14 in yesterday’s USD/JPY Technical Outlook and price has since pulled back below the figure. The break of the weekly opening-range lowsdid not fuel acceleration here and I’m hesitant to press this any harder. That said, look for a hold below yesterday’s high on intraday advances if this is going to work with a near-term support seen at 108.80/94.

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-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.