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Here's an update on a few of the setups we’re tracking into the final full week of April trade. Highlighting the economic calendar this week will be the ECB rate decision and the advanced read on US 1Q GDP. Here are the levels to consider.
NZD/USD in Free-Fall
NZD/USD 240min Price Chart
Our ‘bottom line’ last week noted that the New Zealand Dollar had, “reversed off upslope resistance and the burden of proof is on a break below parallel support to suggest a more significant high is in place. From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading strength while below the weekly open at 7356.” Kiwi has since taken out all of our support targets with the decline now trading within pips of the monthly opening-range lows.
Bearish invalidation now lowered to the resistance confluence at 7303 with a break lower from here targeting 7186 and the March swing low at 7153. From a trading standpoint, I’ll be looking for near-term recovery to offer more favorable short-entries with 7245 & 7274 bot areas of interest for possible exhaustion / short entries.
NZD/USD IG Client Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-short NZDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.02 (49.5% of traders are long) – extremely weak bullish reading
- Traders have remained net-short since Mar 20th ; price has moved 0.9% lower since then
- Long positions are 2.4% higher than yesterday and 55.0% higher from last week
- Short positions are 8.7% lower than yesterday and 40.8% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZDUSD prices may continue to rise. However, traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZDUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
Aussie Reversal Back at Critical Support
AUD/USD 120min Price Chart
In last week’s Australian Dollar technical Outlook, we note that, “A near-term embedded channel keeps the focus lower while below the weekly opening-range highs with a breach above 7707 needed to get things going. Such a scenario targets subsequent topside objectives at 7748, 7780 and the 61.8% retracement at 7812.” Indeed prices rallies to a high of 7813 before reversing sharply into the close of the week with the decline taking back entire monthly advance.
Look for initial monthly open resistance at 7686 with a breach above 7728 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. A break lower from here once again targets critical support at 2016 trendline support at 7630s (broader bullish invalidation).From a trading standpoint, I’ll favor fading near-term weakness into this key support confluence.
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EUR/USD: On the Lookout for Near-term Exhaustion Low
EUR/USD 240min Price Chart
Euro is testing the lower bounds of the consolidation pattern that has defined price action since the February high. The immediate focus is still lower but we’re looking for near-term support just ahead of the monthly opening range lows at 1.2220/30 and our broader outlook remains unchanged from earlier this month. Looking for a low at 1.2230s or even 1.2167 for a large rebound. Key resistance stands with the yearly high-day close at 1.2409.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex or contact him at email@example.com