Never miss a story from Michael Boutros

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Michael Boutros

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Here's an update on a few of the setups we’ve been tracking this week. For a complete breakdown of these setups and more, review this week’s Strategy Webinar.

AUDUSD: Is a Low in Place?

AUD/USD120min Price Chart

AUD/USD Price Chart - 120min Timeframe

We’ve been tracking key support barriers at 7636/45 and 7612 for the past few months and last week we highlighted a near-term descending channel into this zone. A breach above shifts the focus higher with a newly-identified pitchfork offering guidance on this advance. Look for interim support at the median-line with our focus higher while above the April open at 7686. A breach / close above 7780/87 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 200-day moving average / 61.8% retracement at 7810/12.

AUD/USD IG Client Positioning

AUD/USD Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentimentshows traders are net-long AUDUSD- the ratio stands at +1.07 (50.7% of traders are long) – extremely weak bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since Mar 22nd; price has moved 0.9% higher since then
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 26thwhen AUDUSD traded near 0.77451
  • Long positions are 18.7% lower than yesterday and 3.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 32.3% higher than yesterday and 2.4% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUDUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Learn the traits of a successful trader in our Free eBook!

GBP/JPY Testing BIG Resistance

Price is testing a key resistance confluence at 151.84-152.17 and our focus is on a near-term inflection here. The immediate rally is at risk below this threshold and we’re on the lookout for some exhaustion. Ultimately a pullback would offer more favorable long-entries with our broader focus higher while above the monthly open. I highlighted this setup including the near-term trading levels in today’s GBP/JPY Scalp Report.

New to Forex? Get started with our Beginners Trading Guide!

USD/CAD in Free-Fall

USD/CAD Daily Price Chart

USD/CAD Price Chart - Daily Timeframe

USD/CAD has plummeted nearly 4% off the March highs after reversing sharply off key confluence resistance at 1.3103/32. The decline has now taken out most of our support targets with the next big zone at 1.2579/82 where the 61.8% retracement of the 2018 range converges on the yearly open- look for a reaction there. Weakness surpassing this level keeps the short-bias in play targeting the 50-line around ~1.2540s and the measured head & shoulders target at 1.2482.

Initial resistance stands at 1.2633 & 1.2686 (both levels of interest for exhaustion / short-entries) with our broader bearish invalidation level now lowered to 1.2803. Intraday targets remain unchanged from last week’s USD/CAD scalp report.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at