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Near-term Setups in USD/CAD & EUR/USD

Near-term Setups in USD/CAD & EUR/USD

Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Here's an update on the setup's I’m tracking into the start of the week. Find a detailed, in-depth review of all these setups and more in this today’s Strategy Webinar.

USD/CAD 120min Chart

USDCAD 120min Timeframe

We’ve been tracking this reversal off key support since last month with the rally now approaching more significant Fibonacci resistance at 1.2733/39. Look for a reaction there with the immediate topside bias at risk heading into this threshold. If this rally has legs look for support into the weekly opening-range lows / channel support at 1.2629. A breach higher targets 1.2860. Click here to review the most recent USDCAD update.

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USDCAD IG Client Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +4.26 (81.0% of traders are long)- bearish reading
  • Retail traders have been net-long since June 7th- Price has moved 5.9% lower since then
  • Long positions are 16.7% higher than yesterday and 11.4% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 12.9% higher than yesterday but 9.0% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Retail is further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
  • That said, price is rebounding off fresh yearly lows as sentiment is approaching major extremes and highlights the risk for larger recovery.

Track what retail positioning is hinting about the USD/CAD trend. Learn how Sentiment can help your trading in this free guide !

EURUSD: Outlook / Levels remain unchanged. The post-NFP turnover in Euro still has me looking lower for now but ultimately we’ll want to use this pullback. Risk remains lower sub 1.1876 with a break sub 1.17 needed to suggest a larger correction is underway.

See our New EUR/USD 3Q projections in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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