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Near-term Setups in EURUSD & EURNZD

Near-term Setups in EURUSD & EURNZD

Michael Boutros, Strategist

EURUSD 240min

EUR/USD 240min Chart

Earlier this week we highlighted that the rally in EURUSD was testing a ‘decision point’ at the 1.07-handle with a decisive breach through this region taking out targets into the 61.8% retracement at 1.0777. The rally is vulnerable here with the immediate focus back on the 1.07-handle - looking for a reaction there. A break lower would shift the focus back towards the monthly open with our bullish invalidation level now raised to the 100-day moving average / slope confluence at ~1.0630. Topside targets remain unchanged.

See our 2Q Euro projections and more in the DailyFX Trading Forecasts.

Near-term Setups in EURUSD & EURNZD
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EURUSD- the ratio stands at -1.36 (42.4% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Mar 28 when EURUSD traded near 1.0814
  • Long positions are 14.2% lower than yesterday and 38.3% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday but 35.6% higher from last week
  • Broader sentiment continues to point higher with the recent build in short-positioning further highlighting the long-bias. From a trading standpoint, I’d be looking to fade weakness into structural support with a breach above 1.0819 needed to open up the next BIG leg higher in the pair.

What do shifts in retail positioning hint about the broader Euro trend? Learn how Sentiment can help your trading in this free guide!

EURNZD: We got the initial drop & pop we were looking for but the rally fizzled out just ahead of the 1.54-target. Similar expectations here as EURUSD with our levels unchanged. Look for the pullback to get long with our near-term bullish invalidation level now raised to the low-day close at 1.5180. Latest EURNZD update.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.