Near-term Setups in AUDNZD, NZDUSD & EURCAD
Last month we were on the lookout for a turn in AUDNZD as the pair approached a ctirical mulit-year ‘slop of influence’. The subsequent reversal has now stretched into near-term support with the short-bias at risk heading into 1.0430/39 – a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the September advance & the lower median-line parallel of the ascending pitchfork extending off the July low. I’ll be looking for a near-term exhaustion low into this zone targeting the median-line (~1.0525) & the upper parallel / 1.0600. Ultimately a breach / close above the monthly open at 1.0638 would be needed to validate a reversal in the pair.
A break below this key support confluence targets 1.0361 and 1.0312/22. Keep in mind we have RBA monetary policy statement & Australia retail sales on tap tonight with the RBNZ interest rate decision slated for next week.
Last week we highlighted a clear & well-defined weekly opening range in NZDUSD heading into the U.S. 3Q GDP release. The subsequent breach and rally through our bearish invalidation level at 7214 shifted the focus higher in the pair with the rally now eyeing initial resistance at 7331/40. This region is defined by the 9/16 & 9/27 swing highs, the 100% extension of the advance off he October lows and converges on basic near-term channel resistance. Note the highlighted confluence resistance zone just higher at 7370/80 - Look for a reaction at these levels heading into NFP tomorrow with both representing areas of interest for near-term exhaustion / short-entries. Support is now at 7265 backed by 7214/18. A breach above srtuctural resistance targets the yearly high-day close at 7450 & the 7480-7515 key resistance zone.
EURCAD rallied through the 1.46 resistance zone highlighted back in October with the subseuqent advance now testing a confluence Fiboancci resistance at 1.4892-1.4919. Risk for a pullback off these levels but the broader focus remains higher while above 1.4664/73 with a a breach targeting a longer-term slope line ~1.4960s and the 2016 open at 1.5022.
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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
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