We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Breaking news

Chinese PMI Data Beats Estimates. Manufacturing 52.0, Est 44.8, Non-Manufacturing: 52.3, Est 42.0

Real Time News
  • My trading video for today: '#Dow and S&P 500 Slow Advance a Best Outcome, G7 and Chinese PMI Ahead' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/03/31/Dow-and-SP-500-Slow-Advance-a-Best-Outcome-G7-and-Chinese-PMI-Ahead.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/JFyPe0UWjq
  • Foreign exchange – or “#forex” – markets often pay close attention to politics and central bank policy. We offer a model for traders to gauge their impact on exchange rates. Get your market insight from @ZabelinDimitri and @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/FbXc1Awu6a https://t.co/IZlYdXrnLm
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 6.93% Silver: 0.73% Gold: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/wMbZni4GxM
  • "However, this downgrade may be the canary in the coalmine for other emerging market economies that may spread to their OECD counterparts" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/03/30/Euro-May-Rise-on-ESM-Crude-Oil-Selloff-Deepens-on-OPEC-Price-War.html
  • You can't see it, but I have a seriously dubious look on my face https://t.co/vOEfdaHwyg
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.13% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.22% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.27% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.69% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XyAyUgqavm
  • LIVE NOW! APAC Head Strategist @IlyaSpivak discusses the technical and fundamental $AUDUSD outlook for the week ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/378612179?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.82%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 72.90%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/el9cpkaZNX
  • The $USD may rise versus the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit if capital flows out of #ASEAN countries as key U.S. data risks a selloff in equities. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/JWIRn6MLrK https://t.co/W3zdKcvSCJ
  • LIVE IN 30 MIN: APAC Head Strategist @IlyaSpivak discusses the technical and fundamental $AUDUSD outlook for the week ahead here - https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/378612179?CHID=9&QPID=917720&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
Why the Prolonged Fall in EUR/CHF May Not Yet Be Over

Why the Prolonged Fall in EUR/CHF May Not Yet Be Over

2020-02-26 16:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

EUR/CHF price analysis:

  • EUR/CHF has been falling within a well-defined downward-sloping channel on the charts since the middle of December last year.
  • It is now back to levels last seen in the Summer of 2015, a few months after the ‘flash crash’.
  • Moreover, there are few signs yet that the trend lower is over, and the 1.05 level is now a reasonable downside target.

EUR/CHF Outlook: Further downside possible

Losses in the EUR/CHF cross over the past 11 weeks have been dramatic, with the price dropping from above 1.10 to only just above 1.06. Over the last two weeks it has stabilized but that may well prove to have been just a pause for breath before a further decline.

As the chart below shows, the pair is trading within a well-defined downward-sloping channel and this week hit its lowest level since July 2015, six months after the Swiss Franc’s so-called “flash crash”. Now it is close to the channel’s resistance line and a drop back to the middle of the channel around 1.0550 is possible.

A further fall to channel support – currently at 1.05 – would then be on the cards, with the “round number” an attractive target.

EUR/CHF Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (December 3, 2019 – February 26, 2020)

Latest EUR/CHF price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Note that the RSI at the bottom of the chart is back above 30 so, after the recent pause for breath, is no longer in oversold territory. Moreover, if the price were to break above the channel resistance line it would still need to break above the 20-day moving average 1.0647 and the 50-day moving average at 1.0717 to make further progress.

EUR/CHF BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 4% 23% 9%
Weekly -4% 2% -2%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

Technicals aside, note too that the Swiss Franc is benefiting as a safe haven from the risk-off mood in the markets caused by the spread of the coronavirus. At the same time, speculation is growing that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates this year to offset economic weakness in the Eurozone. The overnight index swaps market currently suggests a 94% chance of a 10 basis points rate reduction by year-end.

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Martin Essex, MSTA
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.