USD/JPY found support yesterday around the year-to-date low near 111.00. This reversal coincided with a timing relationship so I am open to at least a minor counter-trend recovery attempt over the next few days. The reading is somewhat bolstered by a few oversold technical extremes – most notably the 3-week rate-of-change which recently touched its lowest level in more than two and a half years. I also think the 109.17 – 112.47 range from October 31st, 2014 (day of surprise announcement by BOJ of further QE) is psychologically significant and a zone the BOJ/MOF may want to protect if they haven’t already been in the market. The week-to-date high around 113.40 looks be to an initial upside pivot, but a close over 114.50 is really required to trigger anything meaningful on the upside.
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