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Analyst Pick - Kiwi & CAD in Focus

Analyst Pick - Kiwi & CAD in Focus

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

There is not much to say about my short position in Cable. It hasn’t really gone anywhere in a week. The failure to maintain downside momentum is concerning and there is some real risk that another leg higher is in the offing. My stop remains at 1.5245 (closing basis). Heading into the end of the week, I will be watching USD/CAD and NZD/USD closely as there are some nice symmetrical timing relationships aligning there that suggest we could see a reversal or at least an attempt at one.

The key zone in USD/CAD to look for a potential failure is 1.3460-90 as it marks the 61.8% retracement of the all-time high and all-time low and the measured move of the late October advance. Into the turn window in NZD/USD, I will be watching closely how the exchange rate reacts at the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 – 2011 advance near .6425 and the 78.6% retracement of the August - October advance in the.6350 area.

Short GBP/USD from around 1.5450. Took profit on half position near 1.5320 (2x initial risk). Lowered stop to 1.5245 (closing basis) on remainder.

Looking for evidence to buy NZD/USD and sell USD/CAD around the end of the week.

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