Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
NOK/SEK Bullish: First G10 Central Bank to Hike Rates

NOK/SEK Bullish: First G10 Central Bank to Hike Rates

Justin McQueen, Strategist

NOKSEK Price Analysis & News

  • NOK Likely to Rise if Norges Bank Signals September Hike
  • NOK/SEK Cheap vs Oil and Spreads

The Norges Bank are due to provide their latest monetary policy report (0900BST, June 17th) and while no change is expected, the focus will be on the central bank’s signalling on when there will be rate lift off. After the central bank announced in March that interest rates are likely to rise in H2 2021, the debate has now shifted towards whether that rise will take place in September (Q3) or December (Q4).

DATA: Economic data remains robust for the Norwegian economy, the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.3%, lower than the Norges Bank’s projections had assumed. That said, while growth contracted in Q1 and inflation has slipped in recent, this is in line with the central bank’s forecast and with regional survey’s revised higher annual wage growth in 2021 to 2.7% from 2.3%, inflation risks are tilted to the upside. Alongside this, oil prices have continued to go from strength to strength with Brent crude futures trading at multi-year highs. That in mind, this would argue for a rate hike in Q3.

NOKSEK is trading at rather cheap levels against both oil prices and interest rate differentials, therefore highlighting value in the cross heading in the Norges Bank. Elsewhere, positioning does not appear to be an issue either as weekly FX flows show that foreign banks (proxy for speculative flows) have been consistent NOK seller sellers over the past six weeks.

NOKSEK vs Oil and Rate Differentials

NOK/SEK Bullish: First G10 Central Bank to Hike Rates

Source: Refinitiv

NOK Weekly FX Flows

NOK/SEK Bullish: First G10 Central Bank to Hike Rates

NOKSEK Technicals

NOK/SEK Bullish: First G10 Central Bank to Hike Rates

DailyFX Education: A trading journal is an important tool for a trader at any level. It will help you identify your trading style as well as evaluate your thought process and review your past behaviours.For more on a trading journal, check out the link below.

Trading Journal: What it is and How to Create One

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.