We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qF04EOUWkI https://t.co/LNl4bXbnpp
  • Recent polls have put Conservatives ahead of Labour and given a boost to $GBP. Get your #Brexit update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/l2n53C0cYY https://t.co/oTWfXkaDDt
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/xeromAGqqx
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
Finding Trades that Avoid Trade Wars is Difficult

Finding Trades that Avoid Trade Wars is Difficult

2018-06-21 03:57:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
Share:

There is considerable technical appeal in trading currency pairs like EUR/USD, and EUR/GBP. The problem is the fundamentals. Both the influence of high profile and steadily unfolding themes as well as specific event risk represents extreme uncertainty. Rather than just a set up to a clear release whereby a break or reversal can be pursued after the event risk is resolved, there are factors at work that have no clear end date, considerable complexity and high profile impact potential.

Do you want to learn how to trade event risk? Download the strategy guide on for trading news events on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

In general, I am trading to avoid the threat posed by trade wars, the Brexit negotiations and maintain a healthy appreciation for risk trends which could quickly snap to attention and deliver volatility to well-planned setups. In general, this means avoiding pairs that have spillover risk from the US-China trade war as well as the far more troublesome threat that the EU could escalate its own front with the United States. That definitely casts EUR/USD is a troubled light.

Brexit is another burden that can curb as much as it drives markets unexpectedly. The Parliament vote this past session alleviated immediate fears, but the long-term issues remain. That fact will lend the Sterling little opportunity. Add to that the uncertainty of the BoE rate decision and Governor Carney Mansion House speech, and there is far more risk than reward.

To move further from the source of uncertainty and probable volatility, the first stage out may be USD/JPY. This is not a neutral pair it reflects trade issues and risk trends. That said, both currencies carry a role of haven and Japan has so far showed little interest in pursuing an outright trade war with the United States. That said, I think the risk of true risk aversion is high. If that concern were to come to pass, Yen deleverage will outpace the Greenback's liquidity bid in the short-term. A hold and retreat from 111.00 would be a good cue.

I'm even more interest in NZD/CAD. The pair was capped in its month-long upswing and the floor of the channel carving out the rising trend recent fell apart. If there is a break below 0.9100 with intent, I consider this a decent opportunity between monetary policy views .

Please add a description for the image.

The other setup that looks appealing for its absences comes from AUD/CHF. There is little unique systemic risk here with the exception of the Australia-China trade tiff escalation. The SNB decision ahead hold very little potential and the Australian Dollar widely suffered its strongest decline in months. A rebound look appealing if properly motivated. A hold above 0.7300 is the aggressive approach while waiting for a break back above 0.7375 or 0.7400 would be more conservative with evaluating intent.

Please add a description for the image.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.