We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
  • The $NZD is inching toward support guiding gains in the fourth quarter of 2019. A break may set the stage for long-term bearish trend resumption. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/bnlx4RJ8oV https://t.co/d60YziMYnO
  • $Gld prices are poised to mark the highest weekly-close in nearly seven-years, but the bulls aren’t in the clear yet. Here are the XAU/USD levels that matter next week. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/yeTH6HwncQ https://t.co/6sIpxTSNaX
  • Video https://t.co/PZeqhLumSR
  • The $USD rose as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso fell on coronavirus fears. What is the technical outlook for USD/IDR, USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/PHP? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/G3GmyOe4IT https://t.co/iq7ajeP6iv
Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst

2016-08-13 04:04:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Currency Strategist
Share:

'Hope for the Best, Prepare for the Worst.' It is a common saying, that most traders will connect to. I would adapt it to 'Prepare for the Best, Trade on the Worst'. In this context, I'm talking about the crushed volatility and quiet trading conditions we have been dealing with. I am prepared should breakouts and big swings return under the influence of global sentiment and shifting monetary policy tides; but for now, it seems range and reserved reach are what we are dealing with.

Among my existing trades, I have a NZD/CAD short which I took with the spike following the RBNZ rate decision that held a trendline resistance going back two-and-a-half years. With the quick reversal after that volatility, the first target was already hit (approximately +140) and the stop was trailed to breakeven looking to momentum to dictate the remaining half's exit.

I also have a long USD/JPY taken just above the rising trendline of lows going back to the post-Brexit plunge and the 50% Fib of the advance from record lows in 2011 to post-QQE high set last year around 100.65. This is very close to entry as of Friday's close and is a risk holding over the weekend given the extreme level of quiet. I will have to evaluate its risk from volatility in response to the Japanese GDP on Monday morning and see if it should be taken off before hand.

There are plenty of other pairs that look well positioned for great opportunity, unfortunately much of that opportunity is appropriate for very different conditions (such as markets that can produce major breakouts or trends). We are dealing with conditions more akin to ranges and small swings until the tides turn. Therefore, the ranges seen with pairs like USD/CAD (1.2950-1.3250); EUR/USD (1.1225 - 1.0975); AUD/USD (0.7750-0.7550) and NZD/USD (0.7325-0.6950) look appealing should timing and event risk provide.

I am also watching AUD/CAD. I missed the reversal from a descending trendline around 1.0100 as I was distracted. A break below the 20-day moving average and trendline support around 0.9900 would be a next move in a larger reversal, but this needs to be weighed carefully as it would look more like a trend trade - and these aren't trending markets - not yet at least.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.