News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHq4Np https://t.co/mf9rsmIvaW
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/mYWO0Eta0P
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/ZvEMQuFjSs https://t.co/rMmq9cehnY
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/tm4k3IVzHr
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
Swing Trade Potential is Fading Fast

Swing Trade Potential is Fading Fast

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

Market conditions are changing, and our trade opportunities are changing with it. On Friday, many regions around the world will be offline for a market holiday (Good Friday), and the liquidity impact will certainly be felt. Few traders will want to take a medium-term swing that needs to build on momentum when there is going to be such a clear break in the transmission of the market's more heady driver - risk. Naturally, I have to adjust my trade approach to account for this.

The type of trades that are least likely to work out given these conditions are those that would need to play out over a 24 hour to 72 hour time frame. Why? Because a strong push over the final sessions of this week is unlikely and thereby reasonable targets have to be very close by - leading to lower risk/reward ratios. Trades that would normally require a move that bleeds into the opening day of next week would be even worse as there will be such a longer period of no liquidity.

There are certainly technical setups that look well positioned for that time frame, but their probability for playing out makes them very unattractive. Rather than try to force a scalp, I'm looking at trades that are more likely to play out next week.

EURUSD is of particular interest as the outrcy for ECB action grows, and traders take the 1.4000 resistance more seriously. Fading moves that take us close to that key benchmark is possible, but there are no explicit levels to use as stops nor gaurantee that the ECB will move in a timely way should we breach the level. Fading would require a risky approach (I will keep the option open), but I still prefer a 1.3650 break.

GBPUSD is in a similar position. There is good reason for the sterling's strength these past 9 months, but further progress likely requires fundamentals that are unreasonable. Fading is exceptionally risky, so I will look for bearish breaks and fundamental catalysts to the downside.

The core yen crosses have moved back into their respective ranges to drain breakout potential. That potential will return though. Upside options are less attractive though GBPJPY above 173 could give a quick move if properly supported and AUDJPY is attractive above 96.50. Downside options are much better and I like USDJPY below 101, EURJPY below 140 and GBPJPY below 169.

In my existing positions, my long-term USDCHF will capitilize on its relationship to EURUSD and the EURCHF's unnatural but firm floor at 1.2000. The long-term AUDNZD long position has been cooled once again by 1.09, but the trend is still bullish. I am still holding both EURAUD and GBPAUD short positions to play out the medium-term H&S reversals rather than cave to the recent short-term bounce.

Market conditions change, and our strategy should reflect those changes. We have coded the DailyFX-Plus strategies for Breakout, Range and Momentum to adapt to these market shifts.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES