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Yen Crosses: Pullback in a Dominant Trend or Major Reversals?

Yen Crosses: Pullback in a Dominant Trend or Major Reversals?

2014-04-09 13:00:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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Risk trends are still baiting us into false starts. The equity tumble cooled this past session, but yen crosses seemed to step into the same assessment. There is an element of risk aversion here (catching up to Monday's move since these pairs were on a BoJ freeze), but this too was more uniquely a yen move.

The potential on these crosses is very high. After the BoJ confirmed they will not upgrade its open-ended stimulus program, we have seen the market render these low-yielding carry currencies significantly more 'expensive'.

The only active yen trade I have currently is a short CADJPY from 93.90 that has already hit its first target of +85 pips and had its stop trailed up to breakeven (bringing me back to even on the day as I cut my USDCAD long for -85 pips as it has not rebound within the bounds I was looking).

This CADJPY short is a play on a strong yen but it is a bid to take advantage of speculative imbalance as it trades range and unwinds the 11-day consecutive bull run. Other yen crosses offer a much grander opportunity. The core yen crosses are at major trendline support.

If another risk aversion push adds to the 'no-QE' lament, I prefer EURJPY below 139.50 followed by USDJPY below 101. However, this could also prove another pullback in a dominant bull trend. If that is the case, I like USDJPY to the upside should US yields regain their balance. I also like GBPJPY for its bullish take and NZDJPY if it stayed above 88.

Aside from the yen crosses, I still have my short EURAUD and GBPAUD positions which are attempting to put new lows in this morning. My long-term USDCHF and AUDNZD are still well within bounds - though the former was pushed back due to the dollar's unflattering performance.

See my video on the outlook and trade potential for the yen crosses here.

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