News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.29% Gold: 0.33% Oil - US Crude: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/vGkrwaFvt1
  • Fragile risk sentiment has continued to benefit the US Dollar, which has taken the title of the preferred safe-haven from the likes of the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/jAFn7qGcbd https://t.co/nWLD7cSQUO
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.89%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 66.41%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fWlXXvQUkT
  • 🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4.5% Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.97% Wall Street: 0.92% France 40: 0.66% FTSE 100: 0.62% Germany 30: 0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/SmPAA5CRPL
  • RT @FinancialJuice: US JUDGE: THE US MUST DELAY TIKTOK DOWNLOAD BAN OR FILE LEGAL PAPERS BY FRI. 2:30 PM ET DEFENDING THE BAN. - COURT ORDE…
  • Fed's Barkin says markets appear to be more concerned about inflation being low, not high $SPX $XAUUSD
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.25% Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Fed's Barkin says he views moderate inflation mostly delivered from market power and price transparency $SPX
Dollar Trades Tentatively Attractive

Dollar Trades Tentatively Attractive

2014-03-22 03:52:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

I find myself evaluating the FX market as being 'more productive' this past week due to the strong performance of the dollar. Yet, this is probably more colored by technicals aligning with my fundamental view rather while market conditions (the capacity to develop trends) is still lacking. While the greenback did mark a significant jump and in turn signal key technical cues, this is still far short of a convincing trend.

The dollar looks attractive for a number of pairs if it reinforces its trend. Currently, I am only still long USDCHF on a longer-term basis (with a stop based on a close below 0.8500) as was laid out in my top 2014 trades from earlier in the year.

Should the dollar continue its run - perhaps inspired by risk aversion - I like EURUSD below 1.3700 and more importantly below 1.3600. This would need to be supported by a market wide dollar rally or euro tumble though as I USDCHF is highly correlated. GBPUSD would be another good one as long as it stays below 1.6500, but here too momentum is key. I have yet to take this because the trendline break itself (going back to summer of last year) was not marked with strong follow through. What would convince me? Again, a universal dollar advance or sterling tumble - likely on the contrast of rate expectations.

NZDUSD is an attractive technical picture. Failed multi-year wedge break and now a head-and-shoulders pattern on the four-hour chart with a 0.8500 neckline. This would only be viable for me fundamentally if the S&P 500 were tumbling. If risk trends alternatively hold up, I will be looking to see if the Aussie dollar can gain better traction and push AUDUSD above 0.9150 for an upside move.

Speaking of the Aussie, I still have my GBPAUD short (stop: 1.8450) and it is well in the money but I have yet to take first target - even though I have surpassed the equivalent of my risk which is usually my first target. I am looking to see if this will break 1.8100 and may build.

There are many other pairs that are looking attractive on various time frames, but I do have a particular interest in the yen crosses. These pairs are very sensitive to fading BoJ stimulus hopes and any furhter drop in risk trends. GBPJPY is ready to go at a mutli-year trendline, but if other crosses don't reinforce a push, it could be a struggle to gain momentum until other pairs join - if they join at all.

See my video on the Yen crosses for more detail.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES