We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • NZD/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long NZD/USD for the first time since May 19, 2020 when NZD/USD traded near 0.61. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to NZD/USD weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/vNo6FTWKmk
  • Crude Oil Prices Rise as Trump Talks Hong Kong, Gold Up on US Unrest - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2020/06/01/Crude-Oil-Prices-Rise-as-Trump-Talks-Hong-Kong-Gold-Up-on-US-Unrest.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #gold #XAUUSD #OOTT https://t.co/gXE7J4nA4K
  • 🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI Actual: 50.2 Previous: 46.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • Repaso a los eventos más importantes de la semana, enfoque en #Lagarde y el #BCE #trading https://t.co/tlKfrNq9xW https://t.co/TgfLmXwvVu
  • Repaso a los eventos más importantes de la semana, enfoque en #Lagarde y el #BCE #trading https://t.co/tlKfrNq9xW
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 46.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • OPEC and Russia is said to be moving closer to an agreement on extension of oil production cuts, looking at 1-2 months - RTRS sources
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final Actual: 40.7 Expected: 40.7 Previous: 32.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • Sharp risk-off reversal after #China is reported to halt some US agriculture imports amid #HongKong tensions & #TradeWar escalation. #AUD, #NZD and #SP500 futures down. #USD and #JPY up. https://t.co/2uwoEalx62
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 40.7 Previous: 32.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
EURUSD Reversal A Quick Play, Risk Trends Still Tempting

EURUSD Reversal A Quick Play, Risk Trends Still Tempting

2012-12-06 20:58:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
Share:

I have discussed the difficult market conditions for generating a consistent trend in the underlying fundamental themes (risk appetite trends being the top driver) these past few weeks. However, I was still running a few positions that were set up under the assumption of a big drive of hundreds of pips. Accounting for market conditions should be the first concern - before either fundamentals or technicals is even contemplated. I broke this rule and I suffered for it.

This morning, the kiwi's persistence finally pushed my NZDUSD short from 0.8175 to hit my (expanded) stop at 0.8320. That is a 145 pip loss (not including carry costs) that will stand as a reminder to myself not to trade what is improbable due to the market back drop.

On the other hand, I have also taken a few profitable trades off the table to balance the NZDUSD. Yesterday, I booked the GBPNZD short from 1.9585 for 85 pips (first target) and 160 pips (second target). This morning, I have taken off two-thirds of a EURUSD short from 1.3100 for 30 pips (first target equal to a tight stop) and 140 pips.

I still have a third of my EURUSD short position on with the stop trailed up to 1.3005 (ensuring +95 pips). This setup didn't contradict my view of difficult trend development because it was looking for a simple correction (natural in markets that lack for conviction) while the second and third targets were merely riding on momentum.

My AUDUSD short from 1.0460 (stop: 1.0530), however, does have the bearing of mismatching market conditions. If there weren't a volatility driver in the near future (NFPs), I would simply cut it for respect to the NZDUSD lesson.

The other exposures I have are far less risk based and thereby can be held with less fear of a dramatic change of direction after liquidity returns. My AUDNZD short from 1.2650 (stop: 1.2725) pits two high-yield currencies against each other. New this morning, a EURGBP short from 0.8100 (stop: 0.8130) is once again a short-term setup like EURUSD looking for a quick correction rather than trend development.

Other possible setups moving forward are those that move away from risk, move away from the Fiscal Cliff and have limited carry over risk from the fumbling for a Greek rescue payment. I think NZDUSD still has that correction potential if it has a catalyst and the target is reasonable. GBPNZD is still attractive as a congestion setup once it nears its range boundaries. USDJPY is a long-term interest as a non-risk pair. And AUDJPY can be a short-term volatility play for an aggressive drop on a sign of crumbling risk. I have a short entry at 84.80 (with a 160 pip stop) just in case.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.