News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here:
  • In the week ahead, around 25% of S&P 500 companies will release their results, including GE, Johnson & Johnson, 3M, Microsoft, Boeing, AT&T, Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Visa and Amazon. Read more on my earnings outlook report.
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.20%) S&P 500 (+0.28%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.51%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Nearly 80% of the S&P 500 constituents closed in the red on Friday, dragged by materials (-0.43%), financials (-0.38%) and energy (-0.34%) whereas defensive utilities (+0.20%), real estate (+0.15%) and communication services (+0.02%) outperformed.
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here:
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here:
  • RT @GunjanJS: This is pretty wild. Last year, in RECORD year for options, about 30 million contracts traded daily. This year, it’s been mo…
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here:
  • What are some technical and fundamental factors affecting the equities market? Get your free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge:
Realistic but Hopeful for Risk Aversion, EURUSD Short Next Week

Realistic but Hopeful for Risk Aversion, EURUSD Short Next Week

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

There is no room in trading for hope. However, there is nothing wrong with laying out market scenarios for different market outcomes - including those that carry the greatest overall potential. I am 'hopeful' that we can see a significant shift in risk trends (most likely towards risk aversion) this coming week and generate meaningful momentum behind the move. We've been lacking for momentum for some time.

This past week, my primary exposure to general risk trends was my short EURUSD from 1.2985. I took profit on the first half at 1.2870 and trailed the stop on the remainder to see if there was enough drive for meaningful follow through. Instead, the Spanish budget threw us for a rebound and my trailed stop cut out the second half for +30 pips.

Sharing the title of my favorite trade next week, I think EURUSD offers the kind of pent up opportunity in risk aversion and Euro-region financial trouble to send this pair tumbling. Furthermore, the technicals are clear. The 20-0-day SMA and 50% Fib retracement of the late August to mid-September rally both fall nicely at 1.2820. I like confirmation on my breaks (more so fundamental confirmation), but this looks very appealing.

The other top trade in my book is a possible GBPUSD. This and EURUSD are highly correlated, so I have to account for that on any trades I take. That said, we've finally broken the spell of seven weeks of consecutive advance and the pair has contracted into what looks like an inevitable breakout situation. I was originally looking for just a move below 1.6150, but an expanding wedge shows I need to really focus my attention on risk trends to offer conviction.

Both of the previous setups are dedicated to risk-off development. To offer some counterbalance, I still have a reduced size EURJPY long from 100.45 (stop: 99.60). Less a risk and more a euro offset, I am also still in a half size EURGBP long from 0.7965 (stop 0.7900). These are sized and stops set in such a way that they could offset some gains from a good EURUSD break, but trend development would offer better return.

Away from risk trends, the best trade I currently have on is without doubt the AUDNZD short. My first short effort was stopped out (it topped just a few pips above the stop), so I reentered last week at 1.2690 (stop 1.2750). I'm well in the money on the position, but I have not taken first target as the net betwen the two attempts is still modest. This pair has a lot of potential, but I may need to be patient. I will also have to watch the RBA outcome next week.

My other current trade exposure is USDJPY. With two entries, I'm long from an average of 77.60 (stop 76.76). I'm targeting somewhere in the vacinity of the channel top (78.75-78.00). If we get a clear 78 break to the upside. I'll build a larger position (I'm already full size).

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.