News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Analyst Pick) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/NZD May Fall After New Zealand CPI Surprise $AUDNZD #RBNZ #AUD #NZD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/daniel_dubrovsky/2021/01/22/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDNZD-May-Fall-After-New-Zealand-CPI-Surprise.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ZVx9BfsofP
  • 🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (DEC) Actual: $0.960B Expected: $0.58B Previous: $0.05B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • The US Dollar may be finding a turning point against ASEAN currencies as smaller fiscal stimulus bets, soft earnings risk and Covid cases translate into some capital flight from equities. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/F3uz5GHMSd https://t.co/YD7wNgSSZT
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.38% Silver: -1.18% Oil - US Crude: -1.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/uFnu8LK5XY
  • Forex Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.22% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/i94xEFtwS8
  • Heads Up:🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (DEC) due at 03:30 GMT (15min) Expected: $0.58B Previous: $0.05B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-22
  • Twitter traders are strong on the HODL today after Bitcoin's 13 percent drop. I don't think the 'we are still up 250% year over year' argument is particularly strong. Alternatively, suggesting regulators will never get a foothold would probably land well
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 72.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CUNmrUFPzy
  • The New Zealand Dollar has slipped lower in recent days against its major counterparts, as risk appetite notably faded. Key levels to watch for NZD/USD, NZD/JPY and AUD/NZD. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/E0OyTqxvcL https://t.co/meJhfb6V9R
  • A part of Hong Kong's Kowloon district will go into lock down this week: SCMP via BBG
Trading the Fed Rate Decision

Trading the Fed Rate Decision

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

We are heading into serious event risk - the kind that not only amplify volatility on dominant themes (risk trends) to dangerous levels, but could also restore direction across the markets. I've been waiting for a serious piece of event risk like the Fed decision to put the market back onto pace; but it is extremely important to trade it properly.

I've written a few reports on the implications and trading approach I am taking into the event. The fundamental backdrop can be found in the Daily Fundamentals, some of the more important charts can be seen in the Infographic article and I list out my ideal pairs for the different scenarios in the Daily Video.

For exposure heading into the event risk, I'm not trying to bet out the outcome of the Fed decision and how the market will interpret it. Therefore, I only have exposure that has a low risk sensitivity and isn't in the direct line of fire. I have my long GBPCAD from (an average entry of) 1.5640. I am taking half off soon around 1.5750 and could add on a break of 1.5780. Then there is the EURGBP long (still a small sized position as my second entry wasn't hit) from 0.7990. There is plenty of room for this to move depending on the break in the euro-crisis we have.

As for trading the volatility and potential trend generation, there are a glut of options (which I list out in the video and will mention in the live coverage). However, for the scenario of no QE3 (a disappointment for risk and booster for the dollar), I like: USDJPY ranging back up toward 79 and perhaps beyond, EURUSD reversing back below 1.2800, AUDUSD dropping below 1.0440, GBPUSD below 1.6075 and EURCAD rallying above 1.2650.

On the opposite end of spectrum (beating stimulus expectations and bolstering risk / weighing the dollar), it is difficult to find pairs that are still relatively undervalued on such an outcome. It is also difficult to determine what such a scenario would look like (most likely an open-ended or very large program). I like for that scenario GBPUSD above 1.6150, NZDUSD above 0.8225, AUDJPY above 81.75 and EURAUD below 1.2250.

For a middle-of-the-road (most likely) outcome, we have to play it by ear. I still think a EURUSD and AUDUSD reversal would be eventual outcomes and would keep a close eye on them.

It is important that the fundamentals support the moves and that this happen quickly (it's not meant to take days for these developments to be fulfilled). Since this is a high volatility scenario driven by a common theme, correlations are likely to be high, so I have to pick and choose from these different options.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES